[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051107
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
607 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front extends into the discussion area from the hurricane-
force 950 mb low centered over Canada near 45N66W. The cold front
reaches from 32N60W SW to 22N70W to Haiti near 20N72W. Gale force
winds N of 30N between 71W-77W, diminished to below gale force
on 05/0900 UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 05N09W
to 05N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N15W to 04N27W to the coast of South America near 03S42W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-05N between 07W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1029 mb high is centered over E Texas near 32N94W. A ridge axis
extends SW from the high to NE Mexico near 25N99W producing 10-20
kt northerly flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast
cold air stratocumulus clouds covers the Gulf S of 28N. Radar
imagery shows isolated moderate convection over the NW Gulf and
Louisiana. In the upper levels, a very large trough is over the
Gulf with axis from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche.
Upper level moisture and scattered high clouds are over the N Gulf
N of 25N. Strong subsidence is S of 25N. Expect cold air
advection to persist through this evening, then switch to
easterly surface flow and warming thereafter.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from Haiti near 20N72W to 14N78W to a
1010 mb low over the the SW Caribbean near 10N81W. 15-25 kt
northerly winds are N of the front. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 90 nm of the low. Isolated moderate
convection is over the central Caribbean from 14N-17N between 74W-
79W. In the upper levels, the base of a large trough is over the
far NW Caribbean. An upper level high centered over the Leeward
Islands is producing ridging over the remainder of the Caribbean
Sea. Expect the stationary front to linger today, gradually
dissipating Saturday into Sunday. Fresh to strong winds are
expected W of the boundary through the upcoming weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated tstms are expected today across
Hispaniola due to a stationary front analyzed over Haiti. Expect
NE winds to increase over the Windward Passage and northern
coastal exposures, persisting through Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Beside of the Special Features cold front across the SW North
Atlantic, a reinforcing cold front is off the Florida coast from
31N70W to the N Bahamas near 27N78W. The remainder of the central
and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1034 mb high centered W of the Azores near 39N36W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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