[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052259
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
559 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 05N08W to
04N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N20W to 03N30W to the Equator near 43W into NE Brazil. Convection
is limited.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A ridge dominates the entire Gulf region anchored by a 1031 mb
high pressure located across Mississippi near 32N89W. Cold air
stratocumulus clouds are noted across much of the region. Thick
low clouds are banked up along the E slopes of the Sierra Madre
mountains. Gentle to moderate E-NE winds prevail, and are expected
to continue through early Saturday morning. Thereafter, the ridge
will move eastward as a trough develops within the easterly winds
across the central Gulf along 90W Saturday afternoon and evening.
The pressure gradient between the trough and strong high pressure
of 1040 mb over the Mid Atlantic States will bring an increase in
winds across the east and central Gulf by Sat night. These winds
are expected to persist through Mon morning, ahead of the next
cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts
on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A stationary front extends from central Hispaniola to 15N77W to
the coast of Panama near 09N78W. Clusters of moderate to isolated
strong convection are noted along the the frontal boundary,
particularly from 12N to 17N between 75W and 78W. Patches of low
level moisture is noted elsewhere across the basin. The most
recent scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong northerly winds
on the west side of the front to the coast of Nicaragua, and
between Jamaica and about 82W. E of the front, mainly moderate
easterly winds prevail. The front will remain nearly stationary N
of 15N and drift W to the S of 15N through Sun. Fresh to strong
northerly winds off Central America from Honduras to Panama are
expected to continue through Sun morning, while fresh to strong NE
winds in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba will briefly reach
gale force early Sun through Sun evening due to the presence of a
strong high pressure N of the region. As this high pressure moves
eastward into the Atlantic ocean, winds will gradually veer to NE
to E across the entire basin. Large NW swell will reach the regional
Atlantic waters this evening and persist through Sun.

...HISPANIOLA...
Cloudiness with embedded showers and isolated tstms will persist
across the island tonight and Saturday as a frontal boundary
remains stationary across Hispaniola. There is a risk of heavy
rain leading to flash floods and mudslides. Fresh to strong NE
winds are expected through the Windward Passage and northern coast
exposures through Sunday night. These winds will briefly reach
gale force on Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A mid-to-upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over
the eastern CONUS supporting a cold front that enters the forecast
area near 31N58W, and extends SW to 22N67W where it becomes stationary
to across Hispaniola and into the Caribbean Sea. A 220 nm wide
band of cloudiness with embedded showers and isolated tstms is
associated with the front. A secondary cold front is clipping the
area near 30N70W. West of the main front, a ridge extends across
the SW N Atlantic, including Florida and the Bahamas. The remainder
of the central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high centered W of the Azores
near 37N37W. Mainly fresh trades are seen along the southern
periphery of the ridge between the coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles. A cold front is pushing southward between the Madeira
and the Canary Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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