[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
502 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure anchored in the southern plains and in the
middle Atlantic extends south across the Gulf of Mexico and
across eastern Mexico. A strong pressure gradient east of the
Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico supports gale-force N winds near
Tampico and Veracruz forecast to end early in the morning on
Thursday. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong high pressure anchored over the middle Atlantic extends
over a portion of the NW Atlc waters southward to the northern
Bahamas adjacent waters. A tight pressure gradient between the
ridge and a frontal system associated with a center of low
pressure anchored in the straits of Florida support gale force
winds N of the front to 30N and E of 80W. The low is forecast to
undergo rapid deepening today while it moves N-NE between Florida
and the northern Bahamas. This will lead to storm-force winds
continuing through early Thursday morning when the winds are
forecast to diminish again to gale-force. Please read the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border area of
Liberia to 07N19W to 02N28W. The ITCZ continues from 02N28W to
01N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 07N between
08W and 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf is under the influence of a strong surface ridge
anchored by several high centers in the southern plains and in the
middle Atlantic. A tight pressure gradient exist east of the
Sierra Madre Oriental mountain range in Mexico, which is
supporting gale force winds from 22N to 27N W of 96W and fresh to
strong northerly winds elsewhere S of 28N W of 95W. Please refer
to the special features section for further details. Thereafter,
the wind field will gradually diminish tonight into Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean basin between
a middle to upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and Yucatan peninsula and a middle level anticyclone anchored
over the SE Caribbean. The troughing supports a stationary front
analyzed across western Cuba from 22N81W SW to eastern Honduras
near 15N84W. Isolated showers are across the NW Caribbean waters
east of the front. In the SW Caribbean waters, a low pressure
center is analyzed underneath diffluent flow aloft. The 1009 mb
low is located near 10N80W and support scattered heavy showers S
of 15N between 74W and 81W. Scattered showers are in the north-
central Caribbean waters between 68W and 78W, including
Hispaniola, the Windward Passage and eastern Cuba. The low is
forecast to remain nearly stationary through tonight and then it
will dissipate. This will allow for the continuation of showers in
the SW Caribbean waters. Otherwise, the eastern Caribbean remains
under fair skies and moderate to occasional fresh trades. The
front is forecast to gradually weaken today. However, reinforcing
cold air will transition the boundary to a cold front that is
forecast to stall over western Hispaniola Friday night. Winds
behind the front are forecast to increase to fresh to strong in
response to the second push of cold air.

...HISPANIOLA...

Diffluent flow between a trough aloft with base near Guatemala and
an upper ridge covering the eastern half of the Caribbean support
scattered showers across the western half of the Island and the
Windward passage. This convection is forecast to continue through
Friday as a cold front approaches from the west and stalls over
the western island Friday. Otherwise, NE winds will increase to
fresh to strong in the Windward Passage starting Thursday night
and continuing through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad middle to upper level troughing supports a cold front
extending from 31N54W SW to 26N70W where it transitions to a
stationary front to the northern Bahamas and then into a warm
front that ends in a 1014 mb low located in the straits of
Florida near 24N80W. Diffluent flow aloft between the upper trough
and the ridge over the central Atlc support scattered showers
between 51W and 74W. A surface trough is NE of the Leeward Islands
extending from 21N61W to 17N60W to 15N60W. Isolated showers are
likely within 90 nm either side its axis. The cold front is
expected to continue sliding eastward through Thursday with strong
to gale force NE winds following in wake of the front. The low is
forecast to strengthen and quickly move N of the discussion area
tonight into Thursday. Storm force winds are forecast to develop
this evening as the low deepens. See the special features section
for further details. The remainder of the central and eastern
Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1037
mb high centered W-SW of the Iberian peninsula.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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