[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1221 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
As of 03/1500 UTC...a vigorous middle to upper level trough is
noted on water vapor imagery over the NE Gulf of Mexico and
Florida panhandle supporting a developing area of low pressure
focused on a pair of 1010 mb lows...one centered off the coast of
SE Florida near 26N80W and the other farther N offshore near
30N80W. A forming cold front extends from the southern-most low
across western Cuba and into the NW Caribbean Sea. A warm front
also extends E from the low across the NW Bahamas and SW North
Atlc waters to 27N71W. With respect to the northern-most low...a
stationary front extends N paralleling the Florida coast along
80W. With the middle to upper level trough energy focused near
29N85W and becoming negatively tilted this afternoon...the
northern-most low pressure is expected to deepen rapidly during
the next 24 hours and move N of the area generating storm-force
winds within 90 nm of center in the southern semicircle in the
discussion waters and eventually develop hurricane-force winds off
the east coast of the US north of the discussion area. A recent
scatterometer pass around 03/1428 UTC captured near gale to gale
force easterly wind N of the warm front to 31N W of 73W. The low
is forecast to move north offshore of the east coast of the US
reaching Nova Scotia Canada by Thursday night. See the latest NWS
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC and NWS OPC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC for more details.

A strengthened pressure gradient and reinforcing cold air
filtering in across the western Gulf of Mexico continues to
support near gale to gale force N-NW winds generally S of 26N W of
95W. The wind field is forecast to translate southward along the
coast of Mexico through late Wednesday night and diminish below
gale force by Thursday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 04N08W to
06N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N16W to the Equator near 33W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from the Equator to 03N between the Prime Meridian
and 06W...and from 01N-06N between 09W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Aside from the near gale to gale force conditions mentioned
above...a surface ridge prevails across the Gulf this afternoon
anchored by a 1036 mb high centered across northern Mexico near
28N101W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to
persist through Thursday afternoon. Thereafter...the ridging will
weaken gradually relaxing the pressure gradient and winds will
diminish into moderate breeze levels for the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean basin this
afternoon between an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and Florida peninsula and an upper level ridge anchored
over northern Venezuela. The troughing supports a forming cold
front analyzed across western Cuba from 23N82W to the Gulf of
Honduras near 17N87W. Isolated showers are possible across the NW
Caribbean waters in the vicinity of the front as the cooler and
drier airmass NW of the front filters southward across the
western Caribbean through tonight. Farther SE...broad surface
troughing and a 1009 mb low centered offshore of central Panama
near 10N80W continues to provide focus for scattered to numerous
showers and scattered tstms S of 17N between 74W-81W...and S of
12N between 81W-84W. Otherwise...the eastern Caribbean remains
under fair skies within moderate to occasional fresh trades. As
the Special Features low pressure area across the SW North Atlc
waters moves northward...the associated cold front will move
across the western Caribbean to 78W and become stationary across
the Windward Passage and Hispaniola Thursday into Friday with
fresh to strong winds expected W of the boundary through the
upcoming weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...
Increased cloudiness and isolated showers are expected through
tonight across Hispaniola as broad surface troughing and lower
pressure focuses on the Bahamas...Greater Antilles...and central
Caribbean Sea. A cold front currently across western Cuba and the
NW Caribbean Sea will begin to approach from the west on
Thursday with NE winds increasing through the Windward Passage
region and persisting through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Outside of the Special Features developing area of low pressure
across the SW North Atlc...a cold front enters the discussion area
across the central Atlc near 32N50W to 31N53W becoming stationary
to 30N62W to 27N73W and linking up with the Special Features warm
front boundary. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring
within 240 nm either side of the boundary. The remainder of the
central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1037 mb high centered W-SW of the Iberian peninsula
near 37N15W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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