[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure anchored in the southern plains and in the
Ohio Valley extends south across the Gulf of Mexico and across
eastern Mexico. A weakness in the ridge is analyzed as a surface
trough over the SW Gulf waters extending from 24N96W to the
western Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. A strong pressure gradient
between the trough and the strong high pressure east of the Sierra
Madre Oriental in Mexico will support the development of gale-
force winds starting at 0600 UTC today, Wednesday and ending early
morning Thursday. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong high pressure anchored over the Ohio Valley extends over
the NW Atlc waters and south to the northern Bahamas adjacent
waters. A tight pressure gradient between the high and a frontal
system associated with a center of low pressure anchored in the
straits of Florida support gale force winds N of the front to 30N
and E of 80W. The low is forecast to undergo rapid deepening
within the next 24 hours while it moves NE across the northern
Bahamas. This will lead to storm-force winds continuing through
early Thursday morning when the winds are forecast to diminish
again to gale-force. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border area of
Sierra Leone to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 06N23W
to 02N29W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to
07N between 07W and 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf is under the influence of a strong surface ridge
anchored by several high centers in the southern plains and in the
Ohio Valley. A tight pressure gradient exist between the Sierra
Madre Oriental mountain range in Mexico and a surface trough over
the SW Gulf of Mexico. This is leading to fresh to strong NW to N
winds from 24N to 28N E of 96W and the entire area W of 96W. The
pressure will further intensify, thus leading to the development
of gale force winds starting at 0600 UTC today near Tampico and
Veracruz. Please refer to the special features section for
further details. Thereafter, the wind field will gradually
diminish Wednesday night into Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean basin between
an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Yucatan
peninsula and an upper level anticyclone anchored over the SE
Caribbean. The troughing supports a stationary front analyzed across
western Cuba from 22N80W SW to eastern Honduras near 15N84W.
Isolated showers are across the NW Caribbean waters associated
with the front. In the SW Caribbean waters, two centers of low
pressure are analyzed underneath diffluent flow aloft. One low
pressure is located near 10N80W and the second low is near 11N77W,
both providing focus for scattered showers in the central
Caribbean waters between 71W and 80W, including Hispaniola, the
Windward Passage and eastern Cuba. These lows are forecast to
remain nearly stationary, which will continue to support showers
in this region. Otherwise, the eastern Caribbean remains under
fair skies within moderate to occasional fresh trades. The front
is expected to gradually weaken today. However, reinforcing cold
air will increase northerly winds tonight into Thursday generally
W of 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Diffluent flow between a trough aloft with base near Guatemala and
an upper ridge covering the eastern half of the Caribbean support
scattered showers across the western half of the Island and the
Windward passage. This convection is forecast to continue through
Thursday night as the upper level wind pattern is forecast to
prevail. Otherwise, NE winds will increase to fresh to strong in the
Windward Passage staring Thursday night and continuing through the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad middle to upper level troughing supports a cold front
entering into the SW North Atlc discussion area near 30N59W SW to
24N73W where it transitions to a stationary front. The stationary
front then extends to a 1015 mb low centered in the straits of
Florida and then into NW Caribbean waters. Widely scattered
showers are within 53W and 75W. To the SE, a surface trough
extends from 20N60W to 15N60W providing focus for isolated
showers. The cold front is expected to continue sliding eastward
through Thursday with strong to near gale force NE winds following
in wake of the front. The low is forecast to strengthen and
quickly move N of the discussion area tonight into Thursday. The
remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence
of a surface ridge anchored by a 1037 mb high centered W-SW of the
Iberian peninsula.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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