[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends from 31N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, to a 1015
mb low pressure center that is near 24.5N80W in the Straits of
Florida, across NW Cuba, to the east-central coastal sections of
Honduras, and into southern Guatemala. The 12-HOUR forecast
consists of NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from
10 feet to 13 feet, to the S of 24N and to the W of 96W.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 31N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, to a 1015
mb low pressure center that is near 24.5N80W in the Straits of
Florida, beyond NW Cuba, to Honduras. Expect N-to-NE gale-force
winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 17 feet, N OF the
FRONT TO 30N AND W OF 78W. Storm-force winds are forecast in 27
hours. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Sierra Leone and Liberia to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from
07N18W to 02N30W, crossing the Equator along 38W, into NE Brazil
near 04S46W. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are
from 07N southward from 50W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
cold front and the gale-force winds.

The cold front from yesterday has passed through the
Gulf of Mexico entirely. Broken to overcast low level and middle
level clouds cover the entire area. Broken to overcast low level
clouds are being observed at the oil platform sites. A few
observations also consist of reports of haze and mist, and
visibilities in the 2 mile to 3 mile range.

Surface high pressure has moved into the Gulf of Mexico behind
the cold front. A ridge passes through the Lower Valley of Texas,
into the eastern coastal plains of Mexico, to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A surface trough is in the western
Gulf of Mexico, in the coastal waters of Mexico from 20N
northward, to the Texas Gulf coast along 27N/28N.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low pressure center that is
near 24.5N80W in the Straits of Florida, across NW Cuba, to the
east-central coastal sections of Honduras, and into southern
Guatemala. Broken to overcast low level and middle
level clouds cover the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

An upper level ridge extends from the SE corner of the Caribbean
Sea, to eastern Honduras/NE Nicaragua. One 700 mb inverted trough
spans the eastern Caribbean Sea islands, from north to south. A
second 700 mb inverted trough is along 77W/78W, from 16N
southward. A surface trough extends from 17N73W to 14N76W, to
a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 11N77W in the SW part
of the Caribbean Sea. The trough continues beyond eastern Panama,
and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers within 120 nm on
either side of the line from 18N73W to 13N78W to the coast of
Panama near 09N82W.

Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in areas of scattered-to-
broken low level clouds, that are spread across the entire area.

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at
02/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.64 in
Bermuda, 0.35 in Curacao, 0.24 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.07 in
Trinidad, and 0.04 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...Scattered to broken low level clouds and
are being observed. Few cumulonimbus clouds are being reported in
Barahona in the Dominican Republic.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that anticyclonic wind
flow during day one, eventually becomes S-to-SW wind flow during
day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows SW wind flow
will move across the island during the next 48 hours. Hispaniola
will be on the W side of a Caribbean Sea ridge. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that anticyclonic wind flow will move
across the area during the beginning of day one. This situation
will transition into S-to-SW wind flow across Hispaniola during
the rest of the 48 hours. Hispaniola will be at the western edge
of a ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
cold front and the gale-force winds. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 23N to 25N between 68W and
72W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward from
40W westward.

An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center
that is near the Western Sahara, to 20N23W, to a second cyclonic
circulation center that is near 18N36W, to 14N56W. Rainshowers are
possible in areas of broken low level clouds, from 12N to 20N
between 40W and 61W. A surface trough is along 19N60W 14N58W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N33W, to 29N45W, 27N54W, and
25N62W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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