[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1239 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
An middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico supporting a cold front extending
from 32N61W SW to the NW Bahamas near 26N78W to western Cuba to
the northern Yucatan peninsula near 20N89W. While fresh to strong
northerly winds are occurring across much of the Gulf basin this
afternoon...near gale to gale force N-NW winds are expected
S of 21N W of 95W through early Tuesday evening across the
southwestern waters. In addition...the cold front and associated
strong pressure gradient across the SW North Atlc waters offshore
of the SE CONUS and northern Florida coasts are generating near
gale to gale force N-NE winds. The gradient is expected to relax
overnight into Wednesday morning with winds diminishing
accordingly. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/
WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to
06N14W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N20W to 02N30W to the Equator near 38W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N-04N between 17W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
In wake of the cold front analyzed across the SW North Atlc and
Yucatan Channel region in the NW Caribbean Sea waters...the Gulf
is under the influence of overall surface ridging anchored by a
1044 mb high centered across the mid-Mississippi River valley in
the vicinity of Saint Louis Missouri this afternoon. Fresh to
strong N-NE winds prevail basin-wide with the Special Features
near gale to gale force winds continuing off the coast of Mexico
in the SW Gulf through this evening. Otherwise...by late Tuesday
night into Wednesday...reinforcing cold air is expected to impact
the western Gulf waters once again increasing northerly winds
into strong to near gale force levels near Tampico and Veracruz.
Thereafter...the wind field will gradually diminish Wednesday
night into Thursday as the southern extent of a ridge anchored
across Iowa provides gentle to moderate northerly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean basin this
afternoon between an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and Yucatan peninsula and an upper level anticyclone
anchored over the SE Caribbean near 14N62W. The troughing supports
a cold front analyzed across the SW North Atlc...across western
Cuba from 23N81W to the NE portion of the Yucatan peninsula near
20N89W. Isolated showers are possible across the NW Caribbean
waters in the vicinity of the front as the cooler and drier
airmass NW of the front filters in across the western Caribbean
through tonight. Farther SE...broad surface troughing and a weak
1009 mb low centered offshore of eastern Panama near 10N77W
continues to provide focus for scattered showers and widely
scattered tstms S of 18N between 72W-82W. The low is expected to
drift westward through Wednesday. Otherwise...the eastern
Caribbean remains under fair skies within moderate to occasional
fresh trades. The front is expected to gradually weaken through
Wednesday and reinforcing cold air will increase northerly winds
again Wednesday night into Thursday generally W of 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly dry and stable conditions aloft are noted on water vapor
imagery...with patches of shallow moisture and possible isolated
showers embedded within moderate trade wind flow. A cold front
currently across western Cuba and the NW Caribbean Sea will begin
to approach from the west on Thursday ushering in an increase in
cloudiness and possibility of precipitation. NE winds will
increase through the Windward Passage region and persist through
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor
imagery over the eastern CONUS and northwestern North Atlc
supporting a cold front entering into the SW North Atlc
discussion area this afternoon. The cold front extends from a
1007 mb low centered SE of Nova Scotia near 41N49W SW to 32N62W to
the NW Bahamas then across western Cuba. Widely scattered showers
are possible within 150 nm either side of the cold front W of
58W. To the S of the front across the SE Bahamas and Turks and
Caicos...a surface trough extends from the Windward Passage region
near 20N74W to 25N69W providing focus for scattered showers and
isolated tstms S from 20N-26N between 66W-74W. The cold front is
expected to continue sliding eastward through Thursday with strong
to near gale force NE winds following in wake of the front. A
middle to upper level trough...currently diving out of the central
Rocky Mountains...will aid in cyclogenesis across the SW North
Atlc waters Wednesday on the western extent of the front. The low
is forecast to strengthen...and quickly move N of the discussion
area Wednesday night into Thursday. The remainder of the central
and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1037 mb high centered W-SW of the Iberian peninsula
near 37N13W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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