[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021121
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
621 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A strong cold front has exited the SE Gulf of Mexico, but high
pressure ridging southward along the Sierra Madre oriental of
eastern Mexico is generating gales along the coast of Mexico.
Satellite-derived wind data from around 03Z indicated 30 to 35 kt
winds near Tampico and stronger winds of 30 to 40 kt near
Veracruz. Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging
from 10 feet to 18 feet to persist to the S of 24.5N within 75 nm
of the coast of Mexico W of 94W until late tonight, when the high
pressure ridge weakens enough to allow the gales to subside.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends SW from 32N63W to the northern tip of Andros
Island in the Bahamas, then to the coast of Central Cuba near
23N80W. Expect N-to-NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging
from 8 feet to 15 feet, N of 28N and the front and W of 74W today.
These conditions will sink slowly S through tonight in tandem
with the front and reach as far S as 25N by Wed morning. The front
is expected to stall in response to the approach of a vigorous
mid- level trough from the NW, allowing low pressure to form over
the northern Bahamas by Wed evening. The low is expected to
rapidly deepen and maintain gales N of 26N and W of the low and
front to 80W and in the E semicircle of the low within 300 NM.
Seas in these areas are forecasted in the 8 to 14 ft range. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends W from the coast of Liberia near
05N09W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 00N40W.
Isolated moderate convection is present from 01N to 03N between
13W and 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details
concerning gale-force winds along the coast of Mexico near Tampico
and Veracruz.

Otherwise, strong high pressure ridging southward over the Gulf
from the United States mainland is maintaining dry conditions and
fresh to strong winds over the basin. Winds will subside today and
tonight as the high shifts E across the United States mainland,
then a reinforcing surge of cold air will reintroduce gales to the
coast of Mexico near Tampico on Wed and near Veracruz Wed night.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level ridge extending N from South America over the
eastern Caribbean is maintaining relatively dry conditions there.
An upper-level trough moving E from the Gulf of Mexico is
interacting with convergent low-level flow in the vicinity of
surface low pres near the N coast of Colombia to produce isolated
thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean between 09N and 12N from 72W
to 82W. Moderate trades are expected over the basin until Thu
morning, when a cold front introduces fresh to strong N winds over
the Caribbean W of 80W. These winds will persist through Sat as
the cold air is reinforced by deepening low pres moving NE from
the Bahamas.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mainly dry and stable conditions will remain in place during the
next couple of days as mid to upper-level ridging remains in
place overhead. Isolated trade-wind showers and partly cloudy
skies can be expected. Strong NE winds could develop over the
Windward Passage Thu night and Fri as a frontal boundary stalls
over the island.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details concerning
the gale force winds E of Florida and N of the Bahamas.

Otherwise, the remainder of the basin is dominated a large 1036
mb high centered SW of Portugal near 36N14W. A very long ridge
extends WSW from the high to NE of Hispaniola near 25N68W. The
high will be generating fresh to strong trades over the waters E
of 50W during the next several days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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