[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011715
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
An middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over eastern Mexico and the NW Gulf that is merging with northern
stream energy currently moving E-SE over the southern Great
Plains. The troughing supports a cold front extending from a 1018
mb low centered near Tampa Bay SW to 24N90W to 23N95W to the
Mexico coast near 20N96W. While fresh to strong northerly winds
are occurring across much of the basin this afternoon...near gale
to gale force N-NW winds are expected generally S of 24N W of 94W
through early Tuesday across the far western and southwestern
waters. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The previously mentioned Special Features cold front extends NE
into the SW North Atlc from 32N70W to the Florida peninsula near
Cape Canaveral and into the 1018 mb low centered near Tampa Bay.
Strong to near gale NE winds are currently observed offshore of
the SE CONUS and are forecast to increase to gale force strength
in the offshore zone by early evening Monday and persist N of 30N
W of 77W through Tuesday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 05N08W to
05N14W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N14W to 02N30W to the Equator near 44W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 02N-06N between 08W-13W...within 90 nm either
side of the axis between 15W-31W...and from 01N-05N between 33W-
46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
As mentioned above...a cold front extends across the central
Florida peninsula from near Cape Canaveral to Tampa Bay to the
SW waters near 23N96W then to the Mexico coast near 20N96W. Strong
to near gale force northerly winds are following in wake of the
front and cover much of the basin this afternoon. The front will
clear the Gulf by Tuesday as the pressure gradient relaxes
somewhat and winds diminish slightly in response. Currently...
widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within
120 nm either side of the front...including interior portions of
Florida peninsula. Thereafter...a reinforcing cold front is
expected to impact the western Gulf waters Tuesday night into
Wednesday once again increasing northerly winds into strong to
near gale force levels.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
South-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean basin
this afternoon on the western periphery of an upper level ridge
with axis extends from over the southern Windward Islands to over
Nicaragua and Honduras. Otherwise...conditions at the surface
remain relatively tranquil with moderate to occasional fresh
trades expected to persist through Wednesday. By Monday night
however...a cold front sweeping across the Gulf of Mexico will
begin to impact the NW Caribbean with moderate to fresh N-NE
winds. The front will gradually weaken through Wednesday and a
reinforcing front will increase northerly winds again Wednesday
night into Thursday generally W of 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly dry and stable conditions aloft are noted on water vapor
imagery...with patches of shallow moisture and possible isolated
showers embedded within moderate trade wind flow. Little change is
expected the next couple of days as low level moisture continues
to advect westward across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Broad longwave middle to upper level troughing is noted on water
vapor imagery over the eastern CONUS and western North Atlc
supporting a pair of cold fronts that enter into the SW North Atlc
discussion area this afternoon. The primary cold front extends
from a 1008 mb low centered SE of Nova Scotia near 41N50W SW to
32N70W to the Florida peninsula near Cape Canaveral. A weak 1013
mb low is centered in the vicinity of the front near Bermuda near
32N65W with the second weaker cold front extending from the low
centered SW to 25N71W. Isolated showers are possible within 150
nm either side of the primary cold front W of 65W. The remainder
of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1039 mb high centered W-SW of the
Iberian peninsula near 37N14W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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