[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends from the northern part of Lake Okeechobee in
Florida, into the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the NW coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico
and the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Expect NW-
to-N gale-force conditions, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet
to 18 feet, to the NW of the cold front to 24.5N and to the W of
93W. Expect these conditions during the next 24 hours.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front is along 31N70W 27N80W. Expect N-to-NE gale-force
winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 14 feet, during the
next 24 hours, N of 29N AND W OF 77W. This cold front eventually
continues into the Gulf of Mexico. Please read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 06N10W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 02N30W,
to 01N40W, to the Equator along 46W, into NE Brazil near 02S50W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
are from 06N southward between 10W and 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
cold front and the gale-force winds.

A cold front extends from the northern part of Lake Okeechobee in
Florida, into the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the NW coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico
and the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
are spread throughout the entire area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from the SE corner of the Caribbean
Sea, to eastern Honduras/NE Nicaragua. 700 mb cyclonic wind flow
covers the area from 15N southward. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers from 14N to 16N
between 70W and 76W. scattered to numerous strong is in Colombia
from 9.5N to 10.5N between 74W and the coast, to the S of
Barranquilla, and to the SE of Cartagena.

Scattered to broken low level clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 70W eastward, from 17N southward from 80W
westward, moving into interior sections of Honduras.

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at
01/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.37 in
Trinidad, and 0.20 in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...Scattered to broken low level clouds and
possible rainshowers are moving across the island. rainshowers
are being reported in Punta Cana. earlier rainshowers were
observed in Puerto Plata. Few-to-scattered low level clouds, and
scattered-to-broken high level clouds, are being observed
elsewhere.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will
move across the island during the next 2 days. A ridge will extend
from the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea, beyond the Nicaragua/
Costa Rica border. A ridge will remain in the southern sections of
the Caribbean Sea during the next few days. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that anticyclonic wind flow will move
across the area first, followed by SW wind flow during the rest of
the 48 hour forecast period. The ridge will move from Hispaniola,
eastward. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one
will consist of anticyclonic wind flow. Day two will consist of SW
wind flow, with Hispaniola at the western edge of a ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
cold front and the gale-force winds.

A dissipating cold front passes through 31N61W to 25N69W.
scattered to broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are
to the west of the line that passes through 32N57W to 20N68W.

Scattered-to-broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are
in an area that is bounded by the line from 32N20W to 13N52W to
23N66W to 32N54W to 32N20W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N33W, to 28N47W, 25N58W, and
to 23N67W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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