[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
606 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 01/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from central Florida,
to the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico S of Tampico.
Behind the front, frequent gusts to near gale force are within 60
nm of the coast between Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida and
Brownsville Texas. By Monday evening, gale force winds will cover
the Bay of Campeche S of 24N and W of 96W. Seas will be 8-11 ft.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
05N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N15W to 03N30W to 02N43W to the South American coast near
00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-05N between
17W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 01/0900 UTC, a strong cold front extends from central
Florida near Cocoa Beach at 28.5N81W to the E Gulf of Mexico at
28N84W to the south central Gulf at 23N90W to S of Tampico Mexico
at 21N97W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the N Gulf
N of 23N. A prefrontal trough extends from Tampa Florida at 27N93W
to 24N87W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. In
the upper levels, zonal flow is noted with upper level moisture
over most of the Gulf, N of 23N. Expect the tail end of the front
to push S to the Bay of Campeche and produce gale force winds
behind the front. See above.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are over Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Leeward and Windward
Islands. Moderate trades are over the N Caribbean N of 15N, while
moderate to fresh trades are over the S Caribbean. Broad ridging
aloft covers the entire basin with the strongest flow over the NW
part. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean on Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Patches of shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow
continue to support scattered showers over the island. Similar
weather is forecast to persist through Tuesday as low level
moisture continue to advect from the east.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N75W to central
Florida near 28.5N81W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front. Further E, another cold front extends from 31N64W to the
central Bahamas near 24N75W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm
of this front. Isolated moderate convection is over the central
Atlantic from 28N-30N between 53W-59W due to the remnants of an
old front. A 1036 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 36N18W.
Expect the two cold fronts to continue to move E with showers over
the next 48 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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