[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062332
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
732 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Nate is centered near 20.3N 85.3W at 06/2100 UTC
or about 70 nm east of Cozumel Mexico, moving north-northwest at
18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is from 14N-25N between 82W-89W.
See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Advisory/Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 17N35W to 10N39W, moving west at
5-10 kt. The wave remains low-amplitude and embedded within the
ITCZ axis with subtle 700 mb troughing noted on the southwestern
periphery of a mid-level ridge. Isolated showers are noted south
of 12N between 37W-42W.

A tropical wave extends from 19N43W to 10N50W moving, west at
10-15 kt. The wave coincides with troughing at 700 mb between
45W-55W. Scattered showers are from 12N-18N between 46W-50W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
06N23W to 11N33W. The ITCZ extends from 11N33W to 08N55W. Besides
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection prevails near the monsoon
trough portion that extends inland over Africa. A few cells are
moving offshore mainly east of 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

T.S Nate is approaching the Yucatan Channel enhancing convection
south of 25N between 83W-89W. To the west, a surface trough
extends from 29N90W to 22N90W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails within 50 nm on either side of the trough. To the
northeast of T.S Nate, a diffluent flow aloft combined with a
surface trough extends over the Florida Peninsula supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly east of 83W. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh easterlies across the basin. Nate
is expected to track northward through Saturday night making
landfall along the north-central Gulf coast. Thereafter through
Sunday, southerly winds on the eastern and southeastern periphery
of Nate will remain fresh to strong as the cyclone gradually
weakens inland.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Primary focus remains across the northwest Caribbean and Yucatan
peninsula as Tropical Storm Nate tracks north-northwest. Refer to
the section above for details about Nate. While scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the NW
Caribbean waters west of 83W, the outer bands of convection are
impacting the western Caribbean waters, Cayman Islands, and
portions of Cuba. This activity covers the area between 76W-81W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over Hispaniola
affecting mainly the western portion of the island. Farther east,
water vapor imagery indicates relatively drier air in place over
the eastern Caribbean with resulting clear skies and fair conditions.
Gentle to moderate E-SE winds are expected to prevail E of 72W
through Saturday. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue across
the western Caribbean as Nate tracks northward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection has developed in the afternoon
hours and prevails across the western portion of the island,
mainly due to daytime heating/orographic lifting. This activity
will dissipate overnight. Similar conditions are expected through
the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. A surface trough extends across the
western Atlantic from 29N81W to 31N79W. This feature combined
with a diffluent flow aloft are supporting scattered moderate
convection mainly west of 70W. Another surface trough extend from
23N70W to 30N66W with scattered showers. A stationary front enters
our area of discussion near 31N38W to 24N47W. The remainder of the
basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a
1021 mb high centered near 25N30W. This is providing mostly fair
weather for the eastern Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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