[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Nate is centered near 19.4N 85.3W at 06/1800 UTC
or about 110 nm ESE of Cozumel Mexico and about 180 nm NNE of
Isla Guanaja Honduras moving NNW at 18 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and scattered
to numerous strong convection is from 16N-24N between 82W-88W.
See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Advisory/Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 09N40W to 17N34W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave remains low-amplitude and embedded within the ITCZ
axis with subtle 700 mb troughing noted on the southwestern
periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored near 21N17W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 05N-14N between 35W-41W.

A tropical wave extends from 10N50W to 19N43W moving W at 5-10
kt. The wave coincides with troughing at 700 mb between 43W-53W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 11N-16N between 47W-51W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
08N26W to 09N30W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 09N30W to 11N34W to 09N42W to 10N47W. Besides the convection
associated with the tropical waves...scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 03N-08N between 10W-14W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 03N-15N between 25W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level divergent flow persists over much of the Gulf
basin this afternoon between an upper level trough with axis
extending from over the SW Gulf waters near 20N95W N-NE to over
the north-central Gulf waters near 28N89W and an upper level
anticyclonic circulation centered over central Cuba near 22N78W.
The troughing aloft supports a surface trough analyzed from the
Mississippi River delta region near 30N89W to the NE tip of the
Yucatan peninsula as a portion of the larger-scale broad surface
troughing that exists across the entire basin. This broad area of
lower pressure encompasses Tropical Storm Nate currently centered
in the NW Caribbean Sea and moving N-NW into the south-central
Gulf by tonight. Scattered showers and widely scattered tstms are
occurring 24N-29N between 84W-93W. Furthermore...scattered to
numerous showers and scattered strong tstms...are occurring
generally S of 26N between 80W-88W as the outer bands of
convection from Nate begin to impact the SE Gulf and southern
Florida peninsula this afternoon. Nate is expected to track
northward through Saturday night making landfall along the north-
central Gulf coast. Thereafter through Sunday...southerly winds on
the eastern and southeastern periphery of Nate will remain fresh
to strong as the cyclone gradually weakens inland.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Primary focus remains across the NW Caribbean and Yucatan
peninsula as Tropical Storm Nate tracks N-NW. While scattered to
numerous showers and strong tstms are occurring across the NW
Caribbean waters N of 15N between 83W-88W close to the center of
the cyclone...outer bands of convection to the east and northeast
of the cyclone are impacting the western Caribbean waters...Cayman
Islands...and a large portion of Cuba. Scattered to numerous
showers and scattered to numerous strong tstms are occurring from
14N-24N between 77W-86W...including the inland locations
previously mentioned as well as the Yucatan Channel region. Heavy
rainfall is expected across Cuba as Nate tracks northward.
Otherwise...farther east...water vapor imagery indicates
relatively drier air in place over the eastern Caribbean with
resulting clear skies and fair conditions. Gentle to moderate E-SE
winds are expected to prevail E of 72W through Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently skies remain mostly fair across interior portions with
possible isolated showers occurring across the southern adjacent
coastal waters. Otherwise...fair conditions are expected through
Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Divergent upper level winds prevail over much of the SW North Atlc
this afternoon east of an upper level trough axis noted on water
vapor imagery extending from 33N71 to 29N81W. Scattered showers
and isolated tstms are occurring primarily N of 26N W of 61W. In
addition...scattered showers and tstms are occurring S of 26N W of
77W as outer bands of convection from Tropical Storm Nate begin to
impact the Florida Straits and southern Florida peninsula. Farther
SE...a surface trough is analyzed from NE of Puerto Rico near
19N68W to 25N63W and provides focus for widely scattered showers
and isolated tstms from 19N-24N between 60W-66W. Across the
central Atlc...a middle to upper level low is centered near 31N41W
supporting a 1018 mb low centered near 31N38W and a stationary
front extending SW from the low to 28N40W to 22N52W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 180 nm E of the
front and elsewhere from 28N-37N between 31W-40W. Lastly...a
surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 26N26W is
providing mostly fair weather for the eastern Atlc.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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