[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Nate became a hurricane near 22.4N 86.3W at 07/0330 UTC or about
84 nm west-northwest of the western tip of Cuba. At 07/0600 UTC
Nate is centered near 23.5N 86.5W or 365 nm south-southeast of the
mouth of the Mississippi river. Nate is moving north-northwest at
19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous
strong convection is from 21N-24N between 84W-89W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 16N-28N
between 82W-92W. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full
Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
16N37W to 07N41W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a region of
strong vertical wind shear and is experiencing dry air intrusion
to its environment as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery at the lower
levels. This is limiting convection to scattered moderate from
05N-14N between 38W-45W just underneath upper level diffluent
flow.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
18N46W to 09N51W, moving west at 5 kt. The wave is in a region of
strong vertical wind shear, however CIRA LPW imagery show abundant
moisture in the wave environment at the lower levels. This is
limiting convection to scattered moderate from 12N-15N between
47W-52W just underneath middle level diffluent flow.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
10N22W to 10N29W. The ITCZ extends from 10N30W to 09N37W to
07N52W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical
waves, numerous strong convection and tstms are coming off the
coast of Africa associated with the next tropical. The convection
extends from 03N-10N between 11W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The main concern in the basin is hurricane Nate located several nm
NE of the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba. Additional
strengthening is expected through Saturday up until the time Nate
makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast Saturday evening or
Saturday night. In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula
and the adjacent islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Nate is expected to
produce rain accumulations of 6 inches in the Eastern Yucatan and
western Cuba through Monday. For further details, see special
features. Scatterometer data show a surface trough NW of Nate
over the W Gulf along 29N93W to 22N92W producing scattered showers
and tstms within 30 nm either side of its axis.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms remains across the
NW Caribbean, the NE Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan channel
associated with hurricane Nate centered over the SE Gulf of
Mexico. Refer to the special features section above for details.
Nate is a broad tropical cyclone, which outer rainbands continue
to affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and, central and eastern
Cuba. Isolated showers extends over Hispaniola and are also being
enhanced by a surface trough over SW N Atlc waters. Water vapor
imagery indicates relatively drier air in place over the eastern
Caribbean with resulting clear skies and mainly fair conditions.
Gentle to moderate E-SE winds are expected to prevail E of 80W
through the weekend. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue
across the western Caribbean as Nate tracks northward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are over Hispaniola associated with the outer
rain bands of Hurricane Nate centered in the SE Gulf of Mexico.
These showers are also being enhanced by a surface trough over SW
N Atlc waters. Similar conditions are expected through the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. A surface trough extends across the
western Atlantic from 26N68W to central Hispaniola. A stationary
front enters our area of discussion near 31N38W to 24N47W. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge,
anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 25N30W. This is providing
mostly fair weather for the eastern Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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