[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 210836
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Cindy does not look much like a tropical cyclone on satellite
images this morning.  The deep convection is well-removed to the
north and northeast of an exposed low-level center, and there is a
rather linear north-south band of convection several hundred miles
east of the center.  Water vapor imagery indicates that an
upper-level low is located a couple of hundred miles to the
northwest of Cindy's center, suggesting that the system has at least
some subtropical characteristics.  The current intensity is held at
50 kt for this advisory, although surface observations and a recent
ASCAT overpass suggest that this may be generous.  Global model
forecasts indicate significant shear, with some mid-level dry air
wrapping around the circulation, over the next day or so.  These
factors, along with the current lack of convection near the center,
should result in some weakening of the system prior to landfall,
perhaps more so than indicated in the NHC forecast.  An Air Force
Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the cyclone
soon, to confirm the intensity and wind field.

The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 310/7 kt.
Cindy is expected to turn northward and move through a break in the
mid-level subtropical ridge along the northwest Gulf of Mexico
coast.  Later in the forecast period Cindy, or its remnant, should
accelerate northeastward in the westerlies over the eastern United
States.  The official track forecast is mainly a blend of the ECMWF
and GFS and also leans toward the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus
prediction.

The primary hazard from Cindy continues to be very heavy rainfall
over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations.  For more
information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local
National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 27.3N  91.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 28.0N  92.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 29.3N  93.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 30.9N  93.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  23/0600Z 33.2N  92.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  24/0600Z 36.0N  85.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 96H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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