[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 211447
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Cindy has the overall appearance of a subtropical cyclone this
morning with a convective cluster just northwest of the center and
additional convection in a ragged band well removed from the center
in the eastern semicircle.  However, there is more convection near
the center than earlier, so the system remains a tropical cyclone on
this advisory. Regular water vapor imagery and experimental
low-level water vapor imagery from GOES-16 show that a significant
amount of dry air is present just east of the center, and this is
likely disrupting the convective organization.  Surface observations
and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
that the maximum winds have decreased a little and are now near 45
kt.  The data also show that the 34-kt wind radii have decreased
over the northeastern quadrant.

The initial motion is now 310/9.  There is little change in either
the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the
previous advisory. Cindy is expected to turn northward and move
through a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge along the
northwest Gulf of Mexico coast.  Later in the forecast period Cindy,
or its remnants, should accelerate northeastward in the westerlies
over the eastern United States.

Given the presence of the dry air near the center and its affects
on the convection, little change in strength is expected before
landfall. Cindy should weaken after landfall and eventually become
absorbed in a frontal system over the eastern United States just
after 72 h.

While the aforementioned dry air is sufficient to keep Cindy from
intensifying, it will do little to reduce the overall rainfall
threat.  Heavy rainfall is expected to continue over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening
flash flooding in some locations.  For more information on the
flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 27.6N  92.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 28.5N  93.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 30.3N  93.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  23/0000Z 32.3N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  23/1200Z 34.3N  91.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  24/1200Z 37.0N  81.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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