[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 210300
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and nearby
ship D5DY4 indicate that Cindy has strengthened to 50 kt based on
peak SFMR and flight-level winds of 51 kt and 62 kt, respectively,
and the ship report of winds near 50 kt. The NHC greatly
appreciates the observations reported by ships C6CE8, ABVZ5, D5DY4,
V7MO2, and WHED, which have been navigating through and near the
center of Cindy for the past several hours.

The initial motion estimate is 310/06 kt based on recent
reconnaissance fixes. A northwestward motion is expected for the
next 24 hours, after which Cindy is expected to recurve northward
and then northeastward around the western portion of the strong
subtropical ridge located over the southeastern United States. The
18Z model guidance has shifted slightly to the east, and the new
NHC track has been adjusted a little to the east as well, close to
the consensus track model TVCA. Given the nature of the circulation
and the fact that wind and rain hazards extend well north and east
of the center, users are encouraged not to focus on the details of
the track forecast.

Although Cindy has strengthened this evening, little change in
strength is expected for the next 12 hours or so, followed by
gradual weakening thereafter due to the combination of strong
vertical wind shear and abundance of dry mid-level preventing the
development of significant inner-core convection. The new NHC
intensity follows the trend of the previous advisory and is a
little above the intensity consensus model IVCN.

The 34-kt wind radii were expanded in the northwest and northeast
quadrants based on recon wind data, and observations from coastal
and offshore buoy data. This has required and eastward extension of
the Tropical Storm Warning along the north-central Gulf coast.

The primary hazard from Cindy continues to be very heavy rainfall
over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more
information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local
National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 26.4N  91.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 27.0N  91.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 28.1N  93.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 29.8N  93.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 31.4N  93.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  24/0000Z 34.7N  90.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 96H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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