[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 202034
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

The low-level circulation of Cindy is exposed well to the southwest
of the main convective band that extends along most of the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Data from the aircraft and marine
observations indicate two areas of high winds. The first is located
in the convection about 150 n mi northeast of the center, and the
second is in a band about 60 n mi northwest of the center.  Based
on a blend of the aircraft and surface data, the initial intensity
is set to 40 kt for this advisory.  The central pressure of 999
mb is based on extrapolated data from the aircraft.  Only limited
strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours as strong
shear continues over the system, with gradual weakening expected as
the system approaches the coast and moves inland.  The new NHC
forecast is similar to much of the guidance and the intensity
consensus.

The circulation has been stationary as it has organized over the
past 6 hours, but the model guidance suggests that a northwest
motion should resume soon as Cindy interacts with an upper-level low
situated to its northwest.  This motion should continue through 24
hours, and then Cindy will recurve around the western edge of the
subtropical ridge as it moves inland in 36 to 48 hours, and
accelerates into the mid-latitude westerlies over the lower
Mississippi Valley. The new NHC track has been adjusted a little to
the left, following the latest trend in the guidance, and lies near
or a little to the left of the latest multi-model consensus aids.
Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain
hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast.

The primary hazard from Cindy continues to be very heavy rainfall
over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more
information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local
National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 25.7N  90.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 26.6N  91.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 27.4N  92.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 28.9N  93.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 30.8N  94.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  23/1800Z 35.0N  90.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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