[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
646 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 12N25W to 04N25W, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is embedded in a deep moisture
surge and an inverted trough is noted at 700 mb. An area of
scattered moderate convection prevails south of 10N between 25W-30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 14N36W to
07N37W, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. The wave shows up
pretty well in the TPW animation and 700 mb streamline analysis.
Convection is limited near the wave's axis.

A tropical wave is located near the Lesser Antilles. This wave was
repositioned based on sounding data, satellite signature, and
model diagnostics. Its axis extends from 16N55W to 08N57W. At this
time, no significant convection is related to this wave.

A tropical wave extends was repositioned across the south-central
Caribbean, based on satellite signature and model diagnostics.
Its axis extends from 15N75W to 07N77W. An area of showers is
observed over the southern portion of the wave mostly related to
the presence of the Monsoon Trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from 14N17W to 12N21W
then resumes west of a tropical wave near 07N28W to 09N36W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N41W to 08N56W. Aside from convection
discussed in the tropical waves section, a small cluster of
isolated showers is observed along the ITCZ between 42W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The surface trough extends across the western Gulf from 28N90W to
21N92W. To the east, a diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered
moderate convection east of 90W, with strongest activity north of
25N. The trough will continue to drift northwest today accompanied
by showers and thunderstorms. Computer models indicate that abundant
moisture will prevail today across the area east of 92W,
including the Yucatan Peninsula and most of the Florida Peninsula,
resulting in more shower and thunderstorm activity. Moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds are south of the trough's axis.
Mainly moderate east to southeast winds cover the remainder of
the Gulf. High pressure will build west across Gulf in the wake
of the trough through late Monday with increasing winds and seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the section above for more information about
the tropical waves. The proximity of the Monsoon Trough currently
extending over Central America is supporting scattered moderate
convection south of 11N between 78W-84W. Scatterometer data
provide observations of moderate to fresh southerly winds across
the northwest Caribbean due to the pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and the trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to
strong trades are over the south-central Caribbean, with the
strongest winds within 90 nm to the north of the coast of
Colombia. The Atlantic high pressure centered near 31N54W will
maintain fresh to strong trades across the basin today and
Monday, with the strongest winds across the south-central
Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Dry air and subsidence aloft will continue over the island
through tonight. Little change is expected through the next 24
hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for details. A frontal trough extends from 31N73W
to northeast Florida near 30N81W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails north of 29N between 67W-72W just south of a stationary
front that extends along 32N. The trough will continue to drift
northwest and weaken today. To the east, a cold front is moving
southward across the central Atlantic and extends from a weak 1018
mb low pressure near 27N46W to 22N52W to 23N61W. Latest satellite
imagery showed very well the surface low and the frontal
boundary. The cold front will continue to move southward across
the central Atlantic on today, then stall and drift back north on
Monday. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a
surface ridge, anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure located near
31N55W. The high pressure will move slowly westward over the next
24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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