[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 14N22W to 06N22W, moving
westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is embedded in a deep moisture
surge and an inverted trough is noted at 700 mb. An area of
numerous moderate convection prevails south of 10N between 16W-
28W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 15N35W to
06N35W, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. The wave shows up
pretty well in the TPW animation and 700 mb streamline analysis.
Convection is limited near the wave's axis.

A tropical wave is located near the Lesser Antilles. This wave's
position is been reviewed to be repositioned based on sounding
data and model diagnostics. The presence of an upper-level low
centered north of Puerto Rico is making it difficult to
differentiate between the presence of the tropical wave or the
upper-level feature.

A weak tropical wave extends its axis from 15N79W to 06N80W. An
area of showers is observed west of the wave's axis between 81W-
83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from 14N17W to 08N21W
then resumes west of a tropical wave near 08N24W to 09N34W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N37W to 10N61W. Aside from convection
discussed in the tropical waves section, a small cluster of
moderate convection is from 07N-11N between 46W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The surface trough extends across the western Gulf from 26N91W to
20N92W. To the south, scattered moderate convection prevails along
the Yucatan Peninsula. To the east, a diffluent flow aloft is
supporting scattered moderate convection east of 90W, with
strongest activity north of 25N. The trough will continue to
drift northwest through Sunday accompanied by showers and
thunderstorms. Computer models indicate abundant moisture across
the Gulf region east of 92W, including the Yucatan Peninsula and
most of the Florida Peninsula on Sunday, resulting in more shower
and thunderstorm activity. Moderate to locally fresh southerly
winds are south of the trough's axis. Mainly moderate E to SE
winds cover the remainder of the Gulf. High pres will build west
across Gulf in the wake of the trough Sunday through late Monday
with increasing winds and seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the section above for more information about
tropical waves. The proximity of the Monsoon Trough currently
extending over Central America is supporting scattered moderate
convection across this area. Scatterometer data provide
observations of moderate to fresh southerly winds across the
northwest Caribbean due to the pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and the trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to
strong trades are over the south-central Caribbean, with the
strongest winds within 90 nm to the north of the coast of
Colombia. The Atlantic high pressure centered near 31N54W will
maintain fresh to strong trades across the basin Sunday and
Monday, with the strongest winds across the south-central
Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

A few showers and thunderstorms were noted over the island in the
evening hours due to local effects. Dry air and subsidence aloft
will continue over the island through tonight. Little change is
expected through the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for details. A frontal trough extends from 31N74W to
northeast Florida near 29N81W, supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms in this area. This convective activity is affecting
mainly the central and north portions of Florida and the western Atlantic
waters north of 29N and west of 71W. This trough will continue to
drift northwest and weaken through Sunday. To the east, a cold
front is moving southward across the central Atlantic and extends
from a weak 1018 mb low pressure near 28N45W to 24N48W to 24N56W.
Latest satellite imagery showed very well the developing low
pressure and the frontal boundary. The cold front will continue
to move southward across the central Atlantic on Sunday, then
stall and drift back on Monday. The remainder of the Atlantic is
under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1026 mb
high pressure located near 31N55W. The high pressure will move
slowly westward over the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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