[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
13N26W to 04N27W, moving westward at around 15 kt. This wave is
embedded in deep moisture and inverted 700 mb troughing between
24W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 11N
between 23W and 32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
15N38W to 07N39W, moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. This low
amplitude wave is at the leading edge of an increase in low to
mid level moisture, and is also evident in 850 and 700 mb model
fields. No deep convection is currently noted with this wave.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has been re-analyzed
farther east over the past 24 hours, and is approaching the
Windward Islands. The wave has an axis that extends from 16N59W
to 08N59W, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. This wave is
associated with a poleward surge in moisture, and a notable
inverted 700 mb trough between about 57W to 62W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 53W and 61W.

A tropical wave over the western Caribbean has been drifting
westward the past 24 hours and has an axis that currently extends
from 15N78W to 08N78W. This wave is associated with 700 mb
troughing between 75W and 80W. The wave is also interacting with
the Monsoon Trough over the SW Caribbean to support clusters of
moderate to strong convection south of 12N and west of 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast
of west Africa near 13N16W to 09N23W, then resumes west of a
tropical wave near 07N29W to 08N37W. The ITCZ extends from 09N41W
to 08N58W. Aside from convection discussed in the tropical waves
section, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 10N, east of
17W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere within 120 nm of
either side of the Monsoon Trough and ITCZ axis, west of 29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A pair of surface troughs are over the Gulf, with the easternmost
trough axis extending from 28N83W to 27N87W, and the westernmost
trough axis extending from 25N92W to 18N93W. These troughs are
interacting with an upper low centered over SE Texas to support
scattered moderate convection with thunderstorms mainly north of
22N and east of 93W. Mainly moderate southeast winds cover the
Gulf today, except for light winds near the western surface
trough, and strong variable winds near the thunderstorms. Over the
next 24 hours the upper low will drift north as the surface
troughing moves northward in tandem, bringing showers and
thunderstorms across much of the northern Gulf coast tonight and
Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the southwestern Caribbean, interacting
with the Monsoon Trough. Please see the tropical waves section for
more details. The pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure and lower pressures associated with the Monsoon Trough
supports moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the
majority of the Caribbean basin today, with locally strong east
winds along the Coast of Colombia, western Venezuela, and the Gulf
of Honduras. Aside from convection associated with the tropical
wave and Monsoon Trough, the basin is currently void of deep
convection. Over the next 24 hours the tropical wave over the
southwest Caribbean will drift west supporting ongoing convection.
A tropical wave about the cross the Windward Islands will enter
the eastern Caribbean with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

...HISPANIOLA...

A weak upper low moving across the area will support isolated
showers and thunderstorms over higher terrain today. Additional
moisture currently just east of the island will spread over the
area over the next 24 hours supporting scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for details. A surface trough extends along 31N
between 73W and 81W supporting scattered showers. A pre-frontal
trough extends south of a stationary front north of the area of
discussion to 31N69W to 29N72W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 240 nm east of the trough axis. A
stationary front extends from 31N34W to a 1018 mb low near 28N47W.
A surface trough extends from the low to 21N54W. No deep
convection is associated with this system. However, fresh to
strong northeast winds can be found within 120 nm north of the
low and stationary front. Over the next 24 hours high pressure
will expand across the central and western Atlantic. The low and
stationary front over the central Atlantic will weaken to surface
troughs.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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