[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A localized strong pressure gradient is expected to develop in
the SW Caribbean Sea by 01/0300 UTC offshore of the coast of
Colombia with gale force NE winds from 10N to 12N between 74W
and 76W with seas 9 to 13 ft. This gale is forecast to last nine
hours. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
05N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N18W
to the Equator near 36W to the coast of South America near
02S45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04S-02N
between 28W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC a 1023 mb high is centered over the SE Gulf of
Mexico near 26N84W with 5-10 anticyclonic winds and fair
weather. The W Gulf has a slightly tighter surface pressure
gradient resulting in 15 kt SE flow. In the upper levels, zonal
flow is over the Gulf. A band of upper level moisture is over
the W Gulf W of 90W between 23N-27N. The remainder of the Gulf
has strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours for the surface high
to move to central Florida. 5-15 kt SE to S return flow will
then cover the entire Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a quasi-stationary front reaches NW Haiti near
20N73W. Scattered showers are over the Windward Passage and E
Cuba. A surface trough is over the Dominican Republic from
21N70W to 18N69W moving W with the tradewinds. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of the trough. Elsewhere, scattered showers are
over Honduras, the Gulf of Honduras, Guatemal, and Belize.
Similar showers are over Costa Rica. More scattered showers are
over Puerto Rico, the Leeward Islands, and the Windward Islands.
10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds
along the coast of Colombia. In the upper levels, zonal flow is
over the Caribbean with very strong subsidence. Expect over the
next 24 hours for more scattered showers to advect over Central
America.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola mostly due to a
trough in the tradewind flow. Expect little change over the next
24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 30N67W. A cold front
is over the central Atlantic from 31N53W to 23N66W. A quasi-
stationary front continues to NW Haiti near 20N73W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the fronts. A 1030 mb high is over
the E Atlantic near 29N34W. The tail end of a cold front is E of
the Canary Islands from 31N10W to 26N16W. This front is now
mostly void of precipitation W of front. In the upper levels,
the central Atlantic cold front is losing upper level support,
and is thus forecast over the next 24 hours to become quasi-
stationary and weaken. Elsewhere in the upper levels, an upper
level low is centered along the coast of Morocco near 30N10W
with scattered showers over Morocco. Another small upper level
low is centered W of the Cape Verde Islands near 15N34W with
scattered showers eithin 360 nm E of center.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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