[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1246 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 13
feet, are present from 10N to 12N between 74W and 76W. These
conditions are in the coastal waters of Colombia. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through Guinea near 09N13W to 04N18W.
The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 01N34W. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 04W eastward. widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N southward from 23W
westward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from
90W westward. The wind flow becomes cyclonic, with a N-to-S
oriented trough, across Florida. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is in the eastern Pacific Ocean just off the
coast of Mexico near 24N108W.

A surface ridge passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 28N77W,
across Florida, to a 1023 mb high pressure center that is near
28N83W, to 27N91W, beyond the coast of Mexico near 22N98W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: VFR. LOUISIANA: IFR in parts of the Lake Charles
metropolitan area. MISSISSIPPI and ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: LIFR in
Apalachicola, Perry, Cross City. MVFR at the Tampa Executive
Airport and at the MacDill AFB.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 16N
southward.

SE-to-S wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb covers the area from 66W
eastward. Easterly wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is moving
through the same area, from 66W eastward.

Comparatively drier air, in subsidence, is apparent in water
vapor imagery, across the entire Caribbean Sea.

24-HOUR rainfall amounts in inches, for the period ending at
01/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.21 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.19 in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

Northerly wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb eventually becomes
easterly, across Hispaniola. SE wind flow, from 600 mb to 800 mb,
also is moving across Hispaniola. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is near 16N68W, about 125 nm to the SSE of the
SE corner of the Dominican Republic. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire
area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo and La Romana:
VFR. Punta Cana: VFR, after a ceiling at 1600 feet for the last
observation, and light rain two observations ago. Santiago: VFR.
Puerto Plata: MVFR, ceiling 1700 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that W-to-NW wind flow
will move across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours, with SW wind
flow at the end of the time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
shows that anticyclonic wind flow from a ridge and an anticyclonic
circulation center will span the area during the next 48 hours.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow
with an inverted trough will alternate with anticyclonic wind flow
and an Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola ridge.

..THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving on top of a cold front that
passes through 32N48W to 28N55W. A dissipating stationary front
continues from 28N55W to 25N60W and 20N73W at the coast of Haiti.
Rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through
32N40W 25N55W 19N65W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 31N61W beyond 28N80W in Florida.

An upper level trough is along 19N36W, to a cyclonic circulation
center that is near 13N35W, to 10N40W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the Atlantic
Ocean from 10N to 18N between 27W and 37W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
10N northward between Africa and 64W. A surface ridge passes
through the Madeira Archipelago, to a 1030 mb high pressure center
that is near 29N36W, to 27N47W and 20N56W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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