[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311647
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1147 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A localized strong pressure gradient is expected to develop in the
SW Caribbean Sea by 01/0300 UTC offshore of the coast of Colombia
with near gale to gale force E-NE winds occurring late evening
and early morning through Wednesday night. See latest NWS High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
05N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N19W to
the Equator near 34W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 04N
between the Prime Meridian and 10W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is S of 04N between 26W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Westerly upper level flow prevails over the Gulf basin this
afternoon as broad middle to upper level troughing is noted over
the SE CONUS stretching westward to over much of Texas. The rather
benign upper level pattern is supporting a surface ridge anchored
by a 1025 mb high centered near 26N86W. Mostly light to gentle
anticyclonic winds are noted E of 90W while gentle to moderate
southerly winds are occurring W of 90W. The high center is
forecast to remain nearly stationary across the NE Gulf and
Florida peninsula through Friday with generally gentle to
moderate easterly anticyclonic flow expected. In
addition...occasional fresh easterly winds will be possible in the
vicinity of the Florida Straits region Thursday night through
Saturday as the pressure gradient strengthens slightly.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A dissipating stationary front is analyzed from the Windward
Passage near 20N73W to the NE coast of Honduras near 16N84W. The
front is expected to dissipate fully by tonight. Only a few
isolated showers are occurring across the Windward Passage region
and NW Caribbean...along with the Gulf of Honduras and interior
areas of Belize...Honduras...and Guatemala. Otherwise...the
remainder of the Caribbean basin remains fairly tranquil with only
a few passing isolated showers possible across the far eastern
Caribbean and in the vicinity of the Mona Passage in association
with a surface trough extending from 18N68W to 22N65W. These
light showers are embedded within moderate to fresh trade wind
flow...with slightly stronger trades as noted in the Special
Features section above expected within the next 24 hours in close
proximity to the coast of Colombia.

...HISPANIOLA...
A dissipating stationary front currently extends to the NW of the
island across the Windward Passage waters. Isolated showers are
occurring within 60 nm NW of the front...while another area of
isolated showers is located across the Mona Passage region in
association with a surface trough analyzed from 18N68W to 22N65W.
The surface trough is expected to cross Hispaniola today providing
higher probability of isolated showers this afternoon and evening.
Thereafter...NE to E moderate to occasional fresh winds are
expected as high pressure anchors to the N across the SW North
Atlc region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates broad middle to upper level
troughing over the eastern CONUS and SW North Atlc region
supporting a pair of fronts. The eastern-most cold front extends
from 32N56W SW to 24N65W then becomes stationary to the Windward
Passage and into the western Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered
showers are occurring within 120 nm either side of the front. The
secondary front enters the discussion area near 32N60W and extends
SW to the Central Bahamas near 25N75W. Ridging continues to build
in behind the second front as a 1026 mb high centered across the
Florida peninsula is forecast to drift E-NE during the next 24
hours into the SW North Atlc waters. Farther east...across the
remainder of the central and eastern Atlc...a surface ridge
prevails anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 30N34W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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