[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 02N24W 02N35W 02N44W,
to the equator along 50W. Convective precipitation: scattered
strong from 01N to 03N between 34W and 39W, and from 02N to 05N
between 44W and 54W. isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere
from 10N southward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through the SE U.S.A. into the
central Gulf of Mexico. This trough supports a second cold front,
that now is passing through 32N74W, to 30N77W, and to Florida near
28N83W just to the north of the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan
area. Comparatively drier air, in subsidence, is apparent in
water vapor imagery, from the line 29N81W 28N90W 29N95W northward.

A 1028 mb high pressure center is in NE Mexico, near 25N99W. One
ridge extends from the 1028 mb high pressure center,
southeastward, along the coast of Mexico, to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are present, in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of
southern Mexico. Please read the EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more
details.

A second surface ridge extends from the NE Mexico 1028 mb high
pressure center that is near 25N99W, to 25N90W and 25N80W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to FLORIDA: VFR.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through 32N68W, to 30N72W, across the NW
Bahamas, including Andros Island, to a 1017 mb low pressure center
near 22N80W along the coast of Cuba. A cold front extends from the
1017 mb low pressure center, to southern Belize, and central
Guatemala. A surface trough extends from the 1017 mb low pressure
center, to 16N83W.

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea from 16N to 20N between 58W in the Atlantic Ocean
and Jamaica and SE Cuba. A trough extends from the southern
coastal waters of Hispaniola toward the NE coast of Nicaragua.

Comparatively drier air, in subsidence, is apparent in water
vapor imagery, from 68W westward.

No significant 24-HOUR rainfall amounts have been reported, for
the period ending at 30/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
a TRACE in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Cyclonic wind flow, from 350 mb to 800 mb, is moving across
Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor imagery, across the entire area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: nearby rainshowers. MVFR. ceiling
1600 feet. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR.
Puerto Plata: VFR. earlier ceiling has dissipated.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that W-to-NW wind flow
will move across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. An upper
level trough will be on top of Puerto Rico, and then even to the
east of Puerto Rico, during the next two days. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that southerly wind flow will move
across the area during day one, with a Caribbean Sea trough.
The trough eventually will move to the NE, into the Atlantic
Ocean. Anticyclonic wind flow will cover the area during day two,
with a ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an
inverted trough will cover the area during day one. Day two will
consist of anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge for the first half
of the day, followed by NE wind flow for the rest of day two.

..THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough is to the west of Africa, from 200 nm on the
northern end to 1400 nm on the southern end.

A surface ridge passes through the Madeira Archipelago, through
a 1029 mb high pressure center that is near 29N37W, to 26N52W,
to SE Cuba.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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