[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
623 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front extends across western Cuba, the Yucatan Channel and
Peninsula with isolated showers. A strong surface ridging extends
southward from northeast Mexico to 17N95W. A strengthened pressure
gradient between these two features is generating near gale to
gale-force northerly winds across the southwest Gulf of Mexico
waters south of 21N and west of 94W. These conditions will
continue through this evening. Thereafter, the pressure gradient
is expected to relax gradually and result in winds diminishing by
Monday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
04N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N17W to
00N46W. Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 03N and
west of 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Aside from the Special Features near gale to gale-force winds
occurring across portions of the SW Gulf waters, the associated
frontal boundary remains analyzed from the Florida Straits as a
stationary front into a weak 1017 mb low centered over western
Cuba near 23N82W. A cold front continues southwest front the low
into the Yucatan Peninsula. A large band of cloudiness and
stratiform precipitation prevails in the vicinity of the frontal
boundaries affecting the southern Gulf south of 22N. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds across the
northern half of the basin, while fresh to strong winds prevail
south of 22N. Expect for the ridge to remain anchored across
eastern Mexico through Monday and then move eastward Monday night
into Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is analyzed along the northwest coast of Cuba
into a 1017 mb low centered near 23N82W, then as a cold front from
the low into the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N88W. Isolated showers
are across the northwest Caribbean northwest within 200 nm south
of the cold front. The remainder of the basin remains fairly
tranquil with isolated quick-moving showers possible near the
islands. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades
across most of the basin, with slightly stronger winds occurring
in close proximity to the coast of Colombia mainly south of 13N
between 71W-77W. Expect for the cold front to continue progressing
eastward across the NW Caribbean providing fresh to strong N-NE
winds upon passage through Monday morning. Little change is
expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers extend across the island due to low-level
moisture convergence on moderate to fresh easterly winds. Little
change is expected during the next 24-36 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough over
the eastern CONUS with an embedded shortwave trough axis extending
from 32N81W to a broad base over the NW Gulf of Mexico waters.
This trough supports a stationary front analyzed from 23N80W to
31N70W and a cold front analyzed from 30N81W to 33N74W. Cloudy
skies and isolated showers prevail in the western Atlantic in the
vicinity of these fronts mainly west of 70W. To the east, a broad
area of high pressure prevails with a 1026 mb center located near
27N44W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the cold front in the
west Atlantic to continue moving southeast merging with the
stationary front. This enhanced boundary will then continue
pushing east across the west/central Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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