[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301158
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 02N29W and 01N37W.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 05N southward from NE South America eastward, and from
02N to 05N inland between 51W in Brazil and 56W in Suriname.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough has been sweeping through the SE U.S.A.,
to parts of the East Coast, into the central and east central
Gulf of Mexico. This trough supports a second cold front, that
now is passing through 32N72W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Florida
just to the north of Lake Okeechobee, to 26N86W in the Gulf of
Mexico. Comparatively drier air, in subsidence, is apparent in
water vapor imagery, from the line 28N82W 27N90W 28N95W
northward.

A 1031 mb high pressure center is in NE Mexico, near 23N99W. One
ridge extends from the 1031 mb high pressure center,
southeastward, along the coast of Mexico, to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are present, in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of
southern Mexico. Please read the EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more
details.

A second surface ridge extends from the Mexico 1031 mb high
pressure center that is near 23N99W, to 24N90W and 25N80W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KIKT.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOUISIANA: MVFR in Patterson. elsewhere from TEXAS to FLORIDA:
VFR.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through 32N65W, to the Bahamas near 24N77W,
to a 1017 mb low pressure center that is near 22N80W along the
coast of Cuba. A cold front continues from the 1017 mb low
pressure center, into the Gulf of Honduras, and central Guatemala.
A surface trough extends from the 1017 mb low pressure center, to
16N83W. Scattered to broken low level clouds and possible
rainshowers are to the northwest of the line that runs from SW
Haiti-to-Panama along 80W.

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea from 16N to 20N between 58W in the Atlantic Ocean
and Jamaica and SE Cuba. A trough extends from central
Hispaniola to the coastal border of Honduras and Nicaragua.

Comparatively drier air, in subsidence, is apparent in water
vapor imagery, from 68W westward.

No significant 24-HOUR rainfall amounts have been reported, for
the period ending at 30/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
a TRACE in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Cyclonic wind flow, from 350 mb to 800 mb, is moving across
Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor imagery, across the entire area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR. Santiago: LIFR and fog. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that W-to-NW wind flow
will move across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. An upper
level trough will be on top of Puerto Rico, and then even to the
east of Puerto Rico, during the next two days. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that southerly wind flow will move
across the area during day one, with a Caribbean Sea trough. The
trough eventually will move to the NE, into the Atlantic Ocean.
Anticyclonic wind flow will cover the area during day two, with a
ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an inverted
trough will cover the area during day one. Day two will consist of
anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge for the first half of the
day, followed by NE wind flow for the rest of day two.

..THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough extends from the coastal waters of the Western
Sahara, to a position that is about 350 nm to the west of the
Cabo Verde Islands, to 08N41W.

A surface ridge passes through the Madeira Archipelago, through
a 1028 mb high pressure center that is near 29N41W, to 26N55W,
24N63W, to SE Cuba.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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