[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Straits across western
Cuba and the northern Yucatan peninsula into a 1016 mb low
centered near 22N95W. A strong high pressure prevails in the wake
of the front centered over northeast Mexico near 28N102W. Near
gale to gale-force northeast winds are depicted in scatterometer
data within the western quadrant of the low. Mid-level reinforcing
energy is expected to sweep over the Gulf of Mexico through the
evening with the low pressure expected to move eastward along the
frontal boundary. Strong to near gale northerly winds are
expected across the western Gulf beyond Sunday in wake of the
front as the pressure gradient begins to relax. Please see the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
04N13W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N13W to
01S46W. Scattered showers are observed within 100 nm north of the
ITCZ mainly west of 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features above for more information
about the low and frontal system that extends across the souther
half of the basin. A surface ridge extends across the northern
Gulf anchored by a 1035 mb high centered over northeast Mexico
near 28N102W. Water vapor imagery depicts a middle to upper-level
trough moving east-southeastward over eastern Texas and the
southeast CONUS, providing reinforcing energy to the stationary
front to make it transition to a cold front tonight into Sunday.
The front will then move southeast exiting the basin. The near
gale to gale force winds in the southwest Gulf will eventually
diminish below warning criteria by Sunday as the pressure gradient
relaxes. The surface ridge will remain in place through early
next week with northerly winds prevailing.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends across western Cuba and the Yucatan
channel region providing focus for isolated showers across the
northwest Caribbean at this time. Elsewhere, tranquil weather
conditions prevail with only quick moving isolated showers
transported by the moderate to fresh trades. Stronger winds are
noted in scatterometer data mainly south of 13N between 74W-77W.
As the frontal boundary receives mid-level support across the
Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours, a cold front is forecast
to enter the northwest Caribbean on Sunday providing fresh to
strong northerly winds upon passage through Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevail across the most of the island as strong
subsidence continues to provide an overall stable environment over
the region. A quick-moving line of cloudiness and possible
isolated showers extends across the western portion of the island
and continues moving west. Little change is expected during the
next 24-36 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the western Atlantic
to the east of an approaching middle to upper-level trough
progressing eastward over the southeast CONUS. The trough
supports a frontal system analyzed as a cold front from 31N65W to
27N74W, then as a stationary front from that point to 24N80W.
A secondary cold front remains to the northwest mainly north of
31N. No significant convection is observed within these
boundaries at this time. The central Atlantic is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a stationary 1024 mb
high centered near 29N40W. To the east of this ridge, another
frontal system prevails analyzed as a cold front from 31N26W to
26N32W then as a weakening stationary front from that point to
21N43W. Isolated showers are possible within 45 nm either side of
the cold front. Expect for the cold fronts to continue moving east
through the next 24 hours while weakening. Little change is
expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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