[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1218 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A stationary front extends from the Florida Straits across western
Cuba and the northern Yucatan peninsula into a 1015 mb low
centered near 22N96W. Strong high pressure at 1030 mb is also
analyzed to the north across Texas generating a strengthened
pressure gradient across portions of the western Gulf of Mexico.
Near gale to gale force N to NE winds are within the western
quadrant of the low. Mid-level reinforcing energy is expected to
sweep over the Gulf basin this afternoon and evening with the low
pressure area expected to move eastward through Sunday along the
frontal boundary. Strong to near gale northerly winds are
expected to continue beyond Sunday in wake of the front as the
pressure gradient begins to relax Sunday into Monday. See latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to
06N14W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N14W to
02N24W to 02N32W to the Equator near 38W then along the Equator to
46W. Isolated moderate convection is S of 05N between 14W-31W.
Scattered moderate convection is S of 06N between 31W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Aside from the Special Features low pressure area mentioned
above...the remainder of the Gulf basin is under the influence of
a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high centered across central
Texas near 31N101W. The ridge axis extends from the high E-SE
along the northern Gulf waters to the northern Florida peninsula
near 29N82W. Mostly zonal flow aloft prevails...however water
vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough continues
to progress east-southeastward over eastern Texas and the SE
CONUS. This troughing is currently providing reinforcing energy to
the current front that will transition it to a cold front by
tonight into Sunday moving SE of the basin by Sunday night. The
near gale to gale force winds will eventually diminish below
warning criteria by Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes
gradually. Beyond Sunday high pressure will remain in place
through early next week with northerly winds prevailing.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A stationary front is analyzed across western Cuba...the Yucatan
channel region...and the northern Yucatan peninsula providing
focus for isolated showers across the NW Caribbean this afternoon.
Otherwise...the remainder of the Caribbean basin remains fairly
tranquil with only a few passing isolated showers possible across
the eastern waters and within 75 nm either side of a line from
19N69W to 14N82W. These light showers are embedded within moderate
to fresh trade wind flow...with slightly stronger trades
occurring in close proximity to the coast of Colombia...generally
S of 14N between 71W-78W. As a frontal boundary receives mid-level
support across the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours...a
cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sunday providing
fresh to strong northerly winds upon passage through Monday
morning.

...HISPANIOLA...
Fair weather and clear skies prevail across the island this
afternoon as strong subsidence continues to provide an overall
stable environment over the region. However...a quick moving line
of cloudiness and possible isolated showers extends across the
eastern portion of the island and continues moving west. Little
change is expected during the next 24-36 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the SW North Atlc
region to the east of an approaching middle to upper level trough
progressing eastward over the SE CONUS. The troughing supports a
cold front analyzed from 32N63W SW to the Andros Island near
25N78W then becomes stationary to western Cuba. A secondary cold
front remains to the NW analyzed from 34N70W to 31N77W. Both
fronts remain relatively precipitation-free...however are ushering
in moderate to fresh W to NW winds. The remainder of the central
Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025
mb high centered near 28N42W. To the east of this ridge...a
weakening cold front extends from 32N27W SW to 23N40W becoming
stationary to 20N50W. Isolated showers are possible within 45 nm
either side of the boundary.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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