[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1242 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is along 22N84W, to a 1015 mb low pressure
center that is near 22N95W, to 19N96W. Expect gale-force NW winds,
and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 14 feet, south of 22N to
the west of the stationary front. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through Guinea near 10N14W to 06N16W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 02N22W, 01N30W, crossing the
equator along 42W, to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Convective
precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
09N13W 06N31W 07N40W 07N45W 07N55W, southward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the area. Comparatively
drier air, in subsidence, is apparent in water vapor imagery, from
the line 26N82W 24N90W 23N98W southward.

A stationary front continues from 27N73W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across Andros Island in the Bahamas, across NW Cuba, to 22N92W in
the Gulf of Mexico, to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near
21N94W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers span the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

A 1030 mb high pressure center is in NE Mexico, near 25N99W. One
ridge extends from the 1030 mb high pressure center,
southeastward, along the coast of Mexico, to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are imminent, in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of
southern Mexico. Please read the EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more
details.

A second surface ridge extends from the NE Mexico 1030 mb high
pressure center that is near 25N99W, to 27N94W, beyond 29N82W in
central Florida.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: light rain and drizzle from
Brooksville to the Tampa Executive Airport, and in the Tampa/St.
Petersburg metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow is covering the Caribbean Sea to the east
of the line that runs from the Peninsula de la Guajira of northern
Colombia beyond Puerto Rico.

Middle level-to-upper level trough extends from Nicaragua to
14N74W, beyond 19N67W, just to the north of Puerto Rico.

Comparatively drier air, in subsidence, is apparent in water
vapor imagery, across the entire area.

No significant 24-HOUR rainfall amounts have been reported, for
the period ending at 29/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
a TRACE in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

SE wind flow, from 350 mb to 800 mb, is moving across Hispaniola.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the entire area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1500 feet. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. An upper level
trough will be close to Puerto Rico, and then even to the east of
Puerto Rico, during the next two days. The GFS MODEL forecast for
500 MB shows that SE-to-S wind flow will move across the area
during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean ridge. SE wind flow will
move across the area during day two, with a weak trough moving
into the area from the west. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb
shows that SE wind flow will move across Hispaniola, with an
Atlantic Ocean-to-SE Cuba/Windward Passage ridge. An inverted
trough will develop across Hispaniola during day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating cold front passes through 32N60W, to 30N65W and
27N73W. A stationary front continues from 27N73W, across Andros
Island in the Bahamas, across NW Cuba, to 22N92W in the Gulf of
Mexico, to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 21N94W.
Upper level W and SW wind flow is moving on top of the area of
the dissipating cold front. The wind flow eventually becomes
anticyclonic more downstream, toward the SE. An upper level
anticyclonic circulation center is near 24N56W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line
that passes through 23N78W, 25N75W, beyond 32N52W.

A deep layer trough is to the west of Africa, from 500 nm on the
northern end to 1000 nm on the southern end. The trough supports
a cold front, that extends from a 1020 mb low pressure center that
is near 33N23W, to 28N29W. A dissipating stationary front continues
from 28N29W to 23N41W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate from 29N to 33N between 30W and 34W. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere within 240 nm to the SE of the line 29N25W
24N40W 20N60W.

A surface ridge, that is to the east of the frontal boundary,
extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center that is near 34N13W,
to the Canary Islands, to 25N30W.

A surface ridge, that is to the west of the frontal boundary,
passes through 33N32W, to a 1025 mb high pressure center that is
near 28N42W, 25N52W, 21N66W, to the eastern half of Cuba.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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