[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A new cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on
Sat evening. On 1800 UTC 28 Jan the front will extend from
28N82W to 23N95W to 18.5N95W. NW to N gale force winds are
forecast from 20N-23N W of front with seas 8-10 ft. See latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to
04N14W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N14W to 02N30W to 06N45W to the South American coast near
01N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-04N
between 10W-19W, and from 03S-05N between 19W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the central Florida near 29N80W to the
SW Gulf of Mexico near 22N93W. A stationary front continues S to
18N93W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. 15-20
kt N winds are W of front. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico E
of front has 5-10 kt southerly return flow with fair weather. In
the upper levels, the base of an upper level trough is producing
zonal flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level moisture is over
the N Gulf N of 25N. Strong subsidence is over the S Gulf.
Expect the cold front in 24 hours to extend from the Straits of
Florida to the N Yucatan Peninsula with scattered showers.
Another new front and gale is forecast for Sat evening. See
above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southern tip of a cold front is over the NE Caribbean near
17N62W. Scattered showers are from 16N-19N between 60W-65W.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are inland over Panama, and Costa
Rica. Similar showers are over the NW Caribbean near the Cayman
Islands. 10-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with
strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper
levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 80W. A trough is
over the E Caribbean E of 80W. Very strong subsidence is over
the entire Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for Central
America to have more scattered showers.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly fair conditions and clear skies prevail over Hispaniola
as strong subsidence continues to provide an overall stable
environment over the region. Little change is expected through
Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is centered E of the Bahamas near 24N62W
producing fair weather. A cold front is over the central
Atlantic from 32N42W and continues S-SW to 26N45W to the NE
Caribbean Sea near 17N62W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm E
of front. A 1024 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near
30N24W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 32N09W to
25N20W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Of note
in the upper levels, an upper level trough is N of 20N between
35W-55W supporting the central Atlantic frontal system. Expect
both fronts to move E over the next 24 hours with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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