[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271105
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A new cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on
Sat evening. On 1800 UTC 28 Jan the front will extend from
28N82W to 23N95W to 18.5N95W. NW to N gale force winds are
forecast from 20N-23N W of front with seas 8-10 ft. See latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
05N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N16W to 01N30W to the South American coast near 03N51W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 01S-06N between 17W-35W,
and from 01N-07N between 45W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from central Florida near
27.5N80W to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 24N88W. A stationary
front continues SW to 21N94W to the Bay of Campeche at 18N93W.
Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. 15-20 kt N
winds are W of front. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico E of
front has 5-10 kt southerly return flow with fair weather. In
the upper levels, the base of an upper level trough is producing
zonal flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level moisture is over
the N Gulf N of 25N. Strong subsidence is over the S Gulf.
Expect the cold front in 24 hours to extend from W Cuba to the N
Yucatan Peninsula with scattered showers. A new front and gale
is forecast for Sat evening over the NW Gulf. See above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southern tip of a stationary front is over the NE Caribbean
from 17N60W to 15N66W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front. Elsewhere, scattered showers are inland over Panama, and
Costa Rica. Similar showers are over the NW Caribbean near the
Cayman Islands. 10-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with
strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper
levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 80W. A trough is
over the E Caribbean E of 80W. Very strong subsidence is over
the entire Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for
portions of Central America to have scattered showers.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly fair conditions and clear skies prevail over Hispaniola
as strong subsidence continues to provide an overall stable
environment over the region. Little change is expected through
Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N72W to central
Florida near 27.5N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front. A 1022 mb high is centered E of the Bahamas near 26N58W
producing fair weather. A cold front is over the central
Atlantic from 32N36W and continues S-SW to 26N40W to 20N53W. A
stationary front continues to the NE Caribbean Sea near 17N60W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm E of front. A 1024 mb high
is centered over the E Atlantic near 31N24W. A cold front is
over the E Atlantic from 32N09W to 29N12W to 25N23W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the front. Of note in the upper
levels, an upper level trough is N of 20N between 35W-55W
supporting the central Atlantic frontal system. Expect both
fronts to move E over the next 24 hours with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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