[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 PM EST Thu Jan 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 29N83W to
22N94W to 18N93W. The front is forecast to continue moving
southeastward across the Gulf waters through Friday. As the high
pressure builds behind the front across the western Gulf, gale
force will prevail south of 21N and west of 95W. Latest scatterometer
data verifies this scenario. Please see the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from the coast of west
Africa near 05N09W to 00N25W then south of the equator to South
America. Scattered moderate convection is from 02S-05N between
19W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 29N83W to
22N94W to 18N93W. Gale-force winds are occurring over the Bay of
Campeche. Please refer to the section above for details. The
front is forecast to move southeastward across the Gulf waters
through Friday enhancing convection within 30 nm of the
front north of 27N, and northern Florida. Scatterometer data
depicts fresh to strong northerly winds across the northwest Gulf
behind the front while moderate southerly winds prevail across the
southeast portion of the basin. Expect for the cold front to
continue moving southeast with convection. Winds will weaken
tonight below gale-force across the southwest Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fair weather prevails across the basin as a broad area of high
pressure continues centered northeast of Puerto Rico and extends
across the Caribbean waters. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate trades across the basin except between 70W-80W, where
moderate to fresh winds prevail. Little change is
expected during the next two days.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly fair conditions and clear skies prevail over the island as
strong subsidence continues to provide an overall stable
environment over the region. Little change is expected during the
next two days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic north of our area of
discussion. The proximity of this boundary is enhancing convection
mainly north of 29N and west of 78W. A 1021 mb surface high is
centered near 25N63W. To the east, another frontal boundary
extends across the central Atlantic analyzed as a cold front from
31N44W to 20N56W then as a stationary front from that point to
16N63W. Isolated showers are observed along the northern portion
of the front mainly north of 25N. A frontal boundary also prevails
across the eastern portion of the basin, analyzed as a cold front
from 31N11W to 26N20W to 26N27W, then as a stationary front from
that point to 29N32W. No significant convection is related to
these features. Expect during the next 24 hours for the cold
fronts to continue moving east. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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