[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Thu Jan 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale - A cold front enters the discussion area near
32N46W and continues south-southwest to 25N50W to the Lesser
Antilles near 16N62W.  Gale force S-SW winds are occurring north
of 29N within 90 nm east of the front.  A 1310 UTC ASCAT
scatterometer pass indicates that the maximum winds have just
dropped to 30 kt, thus the gale warning will likely be
terminated in the next issuance.  See latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale - As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from
the Florida Panhandle near 30N84W to 26N90W to just south of
Vera Cruz Mexico near 19N96W. The front is forecast to move
southeastward across the Gulf waters through Friday. As high
pressure builds behind the front across the western Gulf, gale
force N-NW winds are expected briefly this afternoon south of
21N west of 95W. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from the coast
of West Africa near 06N12W to 00N25W then south of the equator
to South America.  Widely scattered moderate convection is from
00N-05N between 10W-35W. There is no oceanic monsoon trough at
this time in the Atlantic.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 30N84W to 26N90W to just south of Vera Cruz Mexico near
19N96W. The front is forecast to move southeastward across the
Gulf waters through Friday. Scattered showers are mostly over
the NE Gulf of Mexico within 30 nm of the front north of 27N,
and northern Florida. 20-30 kt N winds are west of the cold
front, while the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has 10-15 kt
southerly return flow with fair weather. A brief gale is
forecast for this afternoon south of 21N west of 95W. See above.
In the upper levels, the base of a broad upper-level trough is
over eastern Texas and Louisiana, providing support for the
surface front. Expect the cold front in 24 hours to extend from
southwest Florida to just N of the Yucatan Peninsula with
scattered showers. The front may become stationary across the
southern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough - the remnants of a cold front - is located
from the Lesser Antilles near 16N62W extending west-
southwestward to 14N74W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of
the trough. Elsewhere, isolated showers are inland over Jamaica,
Panama, and Nicaragua. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea has
mostly fair weather. 10-20 kt tradewinds are observed over most
of the Caribbean, but with 25-30 kt near the coast of N
Colombia. Very strong subsidence is over the entire Caribbean.
Little change is expected during the next two days.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly fair conditions and clear skies prevail over Hispaniola
as strong subsidence continues to provide an overall stable
environment over the region. Little change is expected during
the next two days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is centered east of the Bahamas near 26N66W,
producing fair weather. A cold front enters the discussion area
near 32N46W and continues south-southwest to 25N50W to the
Lesser Antilles near 16N62W.  Gale force S-SW winds are
occurring N of 29N within 90 nm east of the front.  See above
for details. Scattered showers are within 120 nm east of the
front. The front should continue pushing eastward quickly, while
gradually weakening during the next two day.  A second cold
front is over the far eastern Atlantic from 32N13W to 27N24W and
then is a stationary front to 29N32W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm south and east of the front. Of note in the upper
levels, a strong upper-level trough is north of 20N along 55W,
supporting the central Atlantic frontal system. This front
should move over northwestern Africa by Friday.  A new cold
front will be entering the forecast waters east of northeastern
Florida later today.  This will be accompanied by 20-30 kt SW
winds ahead of the front and but substantially weaker northerly
winds behind the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea
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