[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261114
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N48W and
continues S-SW to 27N50W to the NE Caribbean Sea near 16N61W.
Gale force S-SW winds are occurring N of 27N within 120 nm E of
front. This gale is forecast to persist until 0600 UTC Fri Jan
27. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 31N86W to 27N92W to N of Vera Cruz Mexico near 20N97W. The
front is forecast to move southeastward across the Gulf waters
through Friday. As high pressure builds behind the front across
the western Gulf, near gale to gale force N-NW winds are
expected briefly this evening S of 21N W of 95W. See latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
04N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N17W to 01N40W to the South American coast near 01S46W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 00N-07N between 10W-23W,
and from 02S-06N between 23W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N86W to N
of Vera Cruz Mexico near 20N97W. Scattered showers are mostly
over the NE Gulf of Mexico N of 27N, and the Florida Panhandle.
20-25 kt N winds are W of front. The remainder of the Gulf of
Mexico has 10-15 kt southerly return flow with fair weather. A
brief gale is forecast for this evening S of 21N W of 95W. See
above. In the upper levels, the base of an upper level trough is
over S Texas and the W Gulf of Mexico, with upper level
moisture. The E Gulf E of 90W has an upper level ridge with
strong subsidence. Expect the cold front in 24 hours to extend
from central Florida to just N of the Yucatan Peninsula with
scattered showers.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southern tip of a cold front is over the NE Caribbean near
16N61W. A surface trough continues to 14N67W to 14N73W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front and trough.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are inland over NW Venezuela, N
Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. The remainder of the Caribbean
Sea has mostly fair weather. 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the
Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In
the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean with axis
along 82W. A trough is over the E Caribbean with axis along 66W.
Very strong subsidence is over the entire Caribbean. Expect over
the next 24 hours for the SW Caribbean, Panama, and Costa Rica
to have more scattered showers.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly fair conditions and clear skies prevail over Hispaniola
as strong subsidence continues to provide an overall stable
environment over the region. Little change is expected through
Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1019 mb high is centered E of the Bahamas near 27N68W
producing fair weather. A cold front is over the central
Atlantic from 32N48W and continues S-SW to 27N50W to the NE
Caribbean Sea near 16N61W. Gale force winds are E of front N of
27N. See above. Scattered showers are within 120 nm E of front.
Broken low clouds are over the W Atlantic W of front to 65W. A
cold front is over the E Atlantic from 32N15W to 28N20W to
27N28W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Of note
in the upper levels, an upper level trough is N of 20N between
45W-60W supporting the central Atlantic frontal system. Another
upper level trough is N of 20N between 00W-30W supporting the E
Atlantic cold front. Expect both fronts to move E over the next
24 hours with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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