[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260616
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N51W and
continues S-SW to 25N54W to the NE Caribbean Sea near 17N62W.
Gale force S-SW winds are occurring N of 27N within 120 nm E of
front. This gale is forecast to persist until 0000 UTC Fri Jan
27. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

A cold front extends from S Louisiana near 30N93W to N of
Tampico Mexico near 22N98W. The front is forecast to move
southeastward across the Gulf waters through Friday. As high
pressure builds behind the front across the western Gulf...near
gale to gale force N-NW winds are expected briefly in an area
generally S of 21N W of 95W. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
05N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N15W to 02N30W to 01N42W to the South American coast near
01S46W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N
between 08W-20W, and from 04S-06N between 20W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from S Louisiana near 30N93W to N of
Tampico Mexico near 22N98W. Scattered showers are mostly inland
over Louisiana. 20-25 kt N winds are W of front. The remainder
of the Gulf of Mexico has 10-15 kt southerly return flow with
fair weather. A brief gale is forecast for this evening S of 21N
W of 95W. See above. In the upper levels, the base of an upper
level trough is over S Texas and the W Gulf of Mexico, with
32N51W and continues S-SW to 25N54W to the NE Caribbean Sea near
17N62W. upper level moisture. The E Gulf E of 90W has an upper
level ridge with strong subsidence. Expect the cold front in 24
hours to extend from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche with
scattered showers.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southern tip of a cold front is over the NE Caribbean near
17N62W. A surface trough continues to 14N70W. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of the front and trough. Elsewhere, scattered
showers are inland over N Colombia and NW Venezuela. Scattered
moderate convection is now seen over Lake Maracaibo. The
remainder of the Caribbean Sea has mostly fair weather. 10-25 kt
tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the
coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W
Caribbean with axis along 82W. A trough is over the E Caribbean
with axis along 66W. Very strong subsidence is over the entire
Caribbean. Expect in 24 hours for the SW Caribbean and Panama to
have scattered showers.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly fair conditions and clear skies prevail over Hispaniola
as strong subsidence continues to provide an overall stable
environment over the region. Little change is expected through
Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1019 mb high is centered E of the Bahamas near 26N71W
producing fair weather. A cold front is over the central
Atlantic from 32N51W and continues S-SW to 25N54W to the NE
Caribbean Sea near 17N62W. Gale force winds are E of front N of
27N. See above. Scattered showers are within 120 nm E of front.
Broken low clouds are over the W Atlantic W of front to 65W. A
cold front is over the E Atlantic from 32N18W to 27N36W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Of note in the
upper levels, upper level troughs are supporting the two
Atlantic frontal systems. Expect both fronts to move E over the
next 24 hours with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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