[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A stationary front is along 31N55W, to a 1014 mb low pressure
center that is near 26N58W, to 18N67W. NE Gale-force winds, and
sea heights ranging from 14 feet to 24 feet, are present to the N
of 27N between the front and 65W.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The 30-hour forecast consists of NE gale-force winds and sea
heights ranging from 11 feet to 12 feet, from 10.5N to 12.5N
between 74.5W and 76.5W.

Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and
the OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area
that is called AGADIR.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of southern
Liberia, to 05N17W, to the equator along 22W, to 02S24W. The ITCZ
continues from 02S24W, to 04S30W, to the coast of Brazil near
05S38W. A surface trough is along 32W/33W from 04N southward.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to the south of
10N from 50W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level is moving into the area. The trough cuts through
the Florida Panhandle, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, into
the SW corner of the area. The upper level NW wind flow depicts a
contrast to the comparatively drier air in subsidence, in the water
vapor imagery, that has been covering the Gulf of Mexico, during
the last 24 hours or so. Middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic
wind flow covers the area from the Yucatan Peninsula northward
from 92W eastward.

A surface ridge cuts across the Gulf of Mexico, along a NE-to-SW
line.

Scattered-to-broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are
from 22N northward from 93W eastward.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Victoria and Port Lavaca, in Bay City and Angleton/
Lake Jackson, in Pearland and Ellington Field in Houston, in
Conroe and in Huntsville. LOUISIANA: MVFR in New Iberia.
MISSISSIPPI: VFR. ALABAMA: LIFR in parts of the Mobile
metropolitan area. MVFR in Evergreen. FLORIDA: light rain from
Pensacola to Milton to Crestview. MVFR in Mary Esther and
Valparaiso. IFR at the Tampa Executive Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough cuts through the Caribbean Sea, across
Hispaniola, toward Jamaica. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
is apparent in water vapor imagery, to the NW of the line that
passes through 20N62W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 15N72W, and to
NE Nicaragua. Upper level SW wind flow is to the SE of the trough.
Middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow is to the W
and NW of the trough, across the area of the drier air in
subsidence. A stationary front passes through the Mona Passage to
the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 15N southward from 78W westward. Rainshowers
are possible also within 120 nm on either side of the rest of the
stationary front.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
10/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.27 in
Curacao, and 0.02 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, from a trough, is moving across
the area. Middle level to upper level NE wind flow, from 350 mb to
500 mb, also is moving across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana: VFR.
Punta Cana: MVFR. ceiling at 1800 feet. Santiago/Puerto Plata:
VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow, with a
ridge, will move across the area during the next 48 hours. The
GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NORTHERLY wind flow,
between a trough to the east and a ridge to the west, will move
across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow, around a ridge, will move
across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is passing through 32N59W to 25N58W, to
Hispaniola. The trough is supporting a stationary front that
passes through 32N55W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is
near 26N59W, with the front continuing beyond the Mona Passage.
Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate
from 24N northward between 50W and 60W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N42W to 20N32W, to 15N29W.
A surface trough is along 31N37W to a 1014 mb low pressure center
that is near 27N38W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 20N northward
between Africa and 35W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N northward between
Africa and 30W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N20W to 28N22W to 22N25W to
15N34W, to the east of the surface trough/1014 mb low pressure
center. A surface ridge passes through 32N74W beyond NE Florida,
to the west of the stationary front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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