[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
629 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A stationary front is currently analyzed across the central
Atlantic and Caribbean Sea from 31N57W into a 1015 mb low
centered near 26N59W to the Mona Passage near 18N68W then to the
coast of Nicaragua near 11N83W. The front is supported aloft by a
middle to upper-level trough with axis extending from 33N61W to
base near 25N73W. Gale-force winds prevail north of 27N and west
of 65W. These conditions are expected to continue through the next
couple of days. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast reaching the
east Atlantic near 07N12W to 03N18W. The Intertropical Convergence
Zone extends from 03N18W to 02S42W. Scattered showers prevail
within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 20W- 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mid-level ridging and dry air aloft is noted on water vapor
imagery supporting surface ridging that extends across the basin from
a 1034 mb high centered in the west Atlantic near 36N75W. Moderate
to fresh anticyclonic winds are depicted in scatterometer data
across the basin. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to
persist through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
The next front is not expected until the early portion of next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The surface high centered across the west Atlantic extends across
the west Caribbean with fair weather. To the east, a stationary
front extends from 11N83W to 15N74W to the Mona Passage near
18N67W. Isolated showers are observed along the front. Fresh to
strong northeasterly winds are depicted in scatterometer data west
of the front while moderate to fresh northeasterly trades prevail
east of the front. The front is expected to remain nearly stationary
or drift slightly eastward through Thursday then become diffuse by
Thursday night into Friday. Winds will diminish on Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

A stationary front lies across the Mona Passage analyzed from 11N83W
to 15N74W to 18N67W. Strong to near-gale northeasterly winds are
occurring in the southwest Atlantic and Caribbean Sea adjacent
coastal waters focused on the Windward and Mona Passages. These
winds will diminish by Thursday. Cloudiness will decrease as the
front drifts eastward and becomes diffuse Thursday night into
Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An area of gale-force winds prevails across the central Atlantic.
Please refer to the section above for details. A surface ridge
prevails across the west Atlantic anchored by a 1034 mb high
centered near 36N75W. To the east, a stationary front extends from
the Mona Passage near 18N67W to a 1015 mb low near 26N59W to
31N56W. The gale-force winds prevail to the northwest of the low
center. Scattered moderate convection is observed along and east
of the stationary front mainly north of 25N between 52W-59W. A
1012 mb surface low is centered near 24N41W with surface trough
extending from the low to 32N40W. An upper-level low is supporting
scattered showers across the east Atlantic between 20W-35W. The low
pressure area along the front is expected to drift southward
through the remainder of the week and weaken well E of the Lesser
Antilles by the weekend. Little change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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