[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101656
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1156 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A stationary front is currently analyzed across the SW North Atlc
and Caribbean Sea from 32N55W S-SW into a 1017 mb low centered
near 27N59W to the Mona Passage near 18N68W to the SW coast of
Nicaragua near 11N84W. The front is supported aloft by a middle
to upper level trough axis extending from 33N61W SW to base near
25N71W. Strong to near gale force N-NE winds prevail W of the
front across portions of the SW North Atlc and north-central
Caribbean Sea in the vicinity of the Windward passage. See latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N05W to
04N08W to 05N14W to 03N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
axis extends from 03N17W to the Equator near 23W. Scattered
moderate convection is S of 04N between 19W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Mid-level ridging and dry air aloft noted on water vapor imagery
is supportive of surface ridging that extends from across the SE
CONUS southwestward to the east-central coast of Mexico near
21N97W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are occurring across
the basin this afternoon with mostly fair skies noted on visible
satellite imagery. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to
persist through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
The next front is not expected until the early portion of next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the basin between an upper
level trough over southern Mexico and the east Pacific region and
an upper level ridge E of the Lesser Antilles. Another middle to
upper level trough is also noted on water vapor imagery over the
SW North Atlc supporting a stationary front analyzed from the Mona
Passage SW to the SE coast of Nicaragua near 11N84W. Widely
scattered showers are occurring within 90 nm either side of the
boundary. In addition...near gale to gale force N-NE winds are
expected to continue through the next couple days through the
Windward Passage and areas downwind of the passage to the E of
Jamaica. Otherwise...moderate to strong trades prevail elsewhere.
The front is expected to remain nearly stationary or drift
slightly eastward through Thursday with fresh to strong NE to E
winds prevailing W of the front as it becomes diffuse by Thursday
night into Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...
A stationary front lies to the SE of the island analyzed from near
20N66W SW through the Mona Passage to 17N70W to the SE coast of
Nicaragua. Near gale to gale force N-NE winds are occurring in the
SW North Atlc and Caribbean Sea adjacent coastal waters focused on
the Windward Passage region and are expected to diminish by
Thursday. Otherwise...cloudiness will begin decreasing as the
front drifts eastward and becomes diffuse Thursday night into
Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough axis extends into the discussion
area near 32N60W SW to a broad base near 25N71W. The troughing
supports a stationary front analyzed from 32N55W into a 1017 mb
low centered near 27N59W SW to the Mona Passage near 18N68W and
into the Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and possible isolated
tstms are occurring N of 24N between 53W-60W and within 90 nm
either side of the front W of 60W. Otherwise...the remainder of
the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1028 mb high centered across North Carolina. Fresh
to strong NE to E winds persist within the eastern periphery of
the ridging. The associated low pressure area along the front is
expected to drift southward through the remainder of the week and
weaken well E of the Lesser Antilles by next weekend. Farther
east...a broader 1013 mb low is centered near 24N41W with a
surface trough extending N-NE to beyond 32N38W. Scattered showers
and isolated tstms are occurring from 17N-30N between 18W-38W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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