[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111149
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A developing cold front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure center
that is near 29N58W, and it continues to 27N55W, to 18.5N66.5W.
N-to-NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 17 feet to
24 feet, are present to the N of 27N between 56W and 62W.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The 24-hour forecast consists of NE gale-force winds and sea
heights ranging from 9 feet to 11 feet, from 10.5N to 12.5N
between 74W and 77W.

Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and
the OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area
that is called AGADIR.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of NW Liberia
near 07N11W, to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to the
equator along 23W, to 04S30W and 04S37W. A surface trough is
along 32W/33W from 04N southward. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to the south of 10N from 52W eastward, mostly
from 06N southward from 52W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level is moving into the area. The trough cuts through
the Florida Big Bend, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the
coast of Mexico near 22N98W. High level clouds were associated
with the upper level NW wind flow about six hours ago. The high
level moisture has dissipated, showing much more dry air in
subsidence, in the water vapor imagery, across the entire Gulf of
Mexico. Middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers
the area from the Yucatan Peninsula northward from 92W eastward.

A surface ridge cuts across the Gulf of Mexico, along a NE-to-SW
line.

Scattered-to-broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are
from 22N northward from 94W eastward.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Alice. IFR in Rockport. LIFR in Victoria. MVFR in
Port Lavaca and Bay City, in Sugar Land, Tomball, and Huntsville.
IFR in Conroe. LOUISIANA: from LIFR to MVFR in the Lake Charles
metropolitan area. MVFR in New Iberia. around Lake Pontchartrain:
LIFR to the NW. IFR to the NE. MVFR around the southern side.
MISSISSIPPI: IFR in McComb. MVFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: IFR/MVFR
in the Mobile metropolitan area. MVFR in Evergreen. FLORIDA:
light rain from Milton to Mary Esther to Crestview. MVFR in Mary
Esther/Valparaiso/Destin. LIFR at the Tampa Executive Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper level trough, that was cutting through the Caribbean
Sea, across Hispaniola, toward Jamaica, six hours ago, now stops
near 19N63W in the Atlantic Ocean. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, to the N and NW of
the line that passes through 19N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
15N73W, and to the border of Honduras and Nicaragua. Upper level
SW wind flow is to the SE of the line that marks the comparatively
drier air in subsidence. Middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic
wind flow spans the entire Caribbean Sea. A stationary front
passes through the NW Puerto Rico, to the border of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N
southward from 78W westward. Rainshowers are possible also within
180 nm on either side of the line that passes through 20N65W
16N67W 15N70W, and within 120 nm on either side of 15N70W 14N78W.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
11/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.27 in
Curacao, and 0.02 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level northerly wind flow is moving across the area.
Middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow, from 350 mb
to 500 mb, also is moving across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo
Domingo/La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: MVFR. ceiling at 1800 feet.
Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow, with a
ridge, will move across the area during the next 48 hours. The
GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NORTHERLY wind flow,
between a trough to the east and a ridge to the west, will move
across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow, around a ridge, will move
across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is passing through 32N58W to 25N57W, to
21N58W, to 19N63W. The trough is supporting a stationary front
that passes through 32N54W, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that
is near 29N58W. A developing cold front continues from the 1012 mb
low pressure center, to 28N55W 25N57W, and to NW Puerto Rico.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate from 23N
northward between 50W and 60W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N41W to 26N33W, to 17N26W.
A surface trough is along 31N36W 27N38W 26N41W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong from 20N northward between Africa and 35W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are
elsewhere from 10N northward between Africa and 40W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N22W to 24N21W to 15N28W and
08N25W, to the east of the surface trough. A surface ridge passes
through 32N74W beyond NE Florida, to the west of the cold front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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