[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070530
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A cold front is currently analyzed across the NW and north-
central Gulf waters from the Florida panhandle near 30N83W SW to
24N93W then to the Mexico coast near 20N96W. The front is
forecast to move across the basin through Saturday and position
itself SE of the Gulf basin by Saturday night. Near gale to gale
force northerly winds are expected to materialize by Saturday
morning around 07/0600 UTC from 22N-24N W of 96W and persist
through Sunday evening. Frequent gusts to gale force will occur
across the north central Gulf tonight through late Saturday. See
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
02N26W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
02N26W to 02S45W. Isolated moderate convection is from the
equator to 03N between 20W and 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from 30N83W to 24N93W to
20N96W. Strong to near gale northerly winds are north of the
front. An upper trough moving northeast over the southern United
States is supporting scattered moderate convection north of 25N
east of 92W. The front will move southeast across the remainder
of the Gulf through Saturday night. Sustained gale force winds
will develop over the western Gulf shortly. Frequent gusts to
gale force will also begin later tonight over the north central
Gulf as low pressure develops over the northeastern Gulf and
strong high pressure builds southward over the central United
States. Please see the special features section above for more
details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

 High pressure over the central Atlantic and low pressure over
Colombia support moderate to fresh trades over the majority of
the Caribbean and strong winds over the south central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia. Dry air aloft and subsidence covers
the majority of the Caribbean tonight. Expect little change over
the next 24 hours. A strong cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean Saturday night with strong northerly winds north of
this front.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mainly dry conditions will prevail over the island through
Saturday except for isolated passing showers in the trade wind
flow over windward locations as well as over higher terrain.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 mb high centered near 33N46W dominates much of the
central and western Atlantic south of 31N with fair weather. A
1005 mb low centered near 30N26W has a surface trough that
extends from the low to 29N20W to 21N26W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are within 240 nm of the low center. Later
tonight, a cold front will move offshore the southeastern United
States and enter the offshore waters off of Florida. At the same
time, low pressure will develop and move northeast along the
front. Strong southwesterly winds will develop ahead of the
front tonight, with strong to near gale northerly winds expected
to develop behind the front on Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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