[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071103
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to the
Bay of Campeche. Gale force winds are N of the front from 21.5N
to 25.5N W of 96W with seas to 15 ft. Gale conditions are to
persist for 24 hours until 08/0600 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to
02N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
02N25W to 01S30W to the coast of South America near 02S44W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 2S-4N between 18W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from 30N82W to 24N93W to
22N93W to 18N95W. Gale force winds are N of the front from 21.5N
to 25.5N W of 96W with seas to 15 ft. 25-30 kt winds are
elsewhere N of front. Winds S of the front are 15 kt from the
SW. Scattered moderate convection is over Florida and the NE
Gulf N of 26N within 120 nm E of front. Strong cold air
advection is associated with the front. In fact, temperatures
are below freezing over portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts, while temperatures over S Florida are in the 70's. In
the upper levels, the base of a broad upper level trough is over
the Gulf of Mexico supporting the front. Upper level moisture is
over Florida and the NE Gulf. Strong subsidence is over the
remainder of the Gulf. Expect the front to exit the Gulf this
evening, with gale to 25 kt northerly winds remaining over most
of the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure over the central Atlantic and low pressure over
Colombia support moderate to fresh trades over the majority of
the Caribbean, with strong winds over the south central
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Scattered showers are over
Panama and Costa Rica. Radar imagery also shows showers N of
Puerto Rico. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the E
Caribbean. Upper level moisture is over the S Caribbean S of
15N, while strong subsidence is over the N Caribbean. Expect a
strong cold front to enter the NW Caribbean this evening with
convection. Strong northerly winds will also accompany the
front.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mainly dry conditions will prevail over the island through
Saturday except for isolated passing showers in the tradewind
flow over windward locations as well as over higher terrain.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 mb high centered near 33N45W dominates much of the
central and western Atlantic south of 31N with fair weather. A
1005 mb low centered near 30N26W has a surface trough that
extends from the low to 26N27W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are within 240 nm of the low center. Expect, a
cold front to enter the offshore waters of Florida today.
Prefrontal scattered moderate convection is already N of 29N W
of 76W moving E. Also expect strong to near gale northerly winds
to be behind this front today.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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