[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A cold front is currently analyzed across the NW and north-central
Gulf waters from the Florida panhandle near 30N85W SW to 25N95W
then to the Mexico coast near 22N97W. The front is forecast to
move across the basin through Saturday and position itself SE of
the Gulf basin by Saturday night. Near gale to gale force
northerly winds are expected to materialize by Saturday morning
around 07/0600 UTC from 21N-24N W of 96W and persist through
Sunday morning. Frequent gusts to gale force will occur across the
north central Gulf tonight through late Saturday. See latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N09W to
03N20W to 01N26W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 01N26W to 02S46W. Isolated moderate convection is from the
equator to 09N between 17W and 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends from 30N85W to 25N95W to 22N97W. Strong to
near gale northerly winds are north of the front. An upper trough
moving northeast over the southern United States is supporting
scattered moderate convection north of 25N east of 92W. A
dissipating 1010 mb low is centered near 21N97W. The front will
move southeast across the remainder of the Gulf through Saturday
night. Sustained gale force winds will develop over the western
Gulf later tonight. Frequent gusts to gale force will also begin
later tonight over the north central Gulf as low pressure
develops over the northeastern Gulf and strong high pressure
builds southward over the central United States. Please see the
special features section above for more details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Dry air and subsidence covers the majority of the Caribbean
tonight. High pressure over the central Atlantic and low pressure
over Colombia support moderate to fresh trades over the majority
of the Caribbean and strong winds over the south central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia. Expect little change over the next 24
hours. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Saturday
night with strong northerly winds north of this front.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mainly dry conditions will prevail over the island through
Saturday except for isolated passing showers in the trade wind
flow over windward locations as well as over higher terrain.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 mb high centered near 33N46W dominates much of the central
and western Atlantic south of 31N with fair weather. A 1004 mb low
centered near 30N25W has a surface trough that extends from the
low to 30N20W to 21N28W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
within 300 nm of the low center. Later tonight, a cold front will
move offshore the southeastern United States and enter the
offshore waters off of Florida. At the same time, low pressure
will develop and move northeast along the front. Strong
southwesterly winds will develop ahead of the front tonight, with
strong to near gale northerly winds expected to develop behind the
front on Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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