[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061124
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
624 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from 25N98W to
27N96W to 30N88W. The front is expected to continue moving across
the basin and position itself southeast of the Gulf waters by
Saturday night. Near gale to gale force northerly winds will
develop by 07/0600 UTC from 21N-28N west of 90W and persist
through early Sunday morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
03N28W. The ITCZ extends from 03N28W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed within 100 nm on either side of the ITCZ
mainly west of 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf from 25N98W to
27N96W to 30N88W. Isolated showers are observed along the frontal
boundary. Latest surface observations are reporting mist/fog near
the frontal boundary mainly north of 26N and west of 90W. Tranquil
weather conditions prevail across the remainder of the basin at
this time. As mentioned above...near gale to gale force northerly
winds are expected across portions of the western Gulf with fresh
to strong northeast winds expected through Monday morning. A
strong high pressure will remain anchored across the southern
plains then move eastward to the mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor imagery continues to indicate strong subsidence over
the entire basin. A weak pressure gradient is noted across the
basin supporting gentle to moderate trades over the area while moderate
to fresh winds are expected within close proximity to the coast of
Colombia and northwest Venezuela. By Saturday night...a cold front
is expected to move into the northwest Caribbean resulting in
strong to near gale northerly winds that will spread southeastward
to 74W by Monday morning.

...HISPANIOLA...

Dry air and strong subsidence aloft are providing an overall
stable environment that is expected to persist the next several
days keeping overall conditions tranquil.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 29N71W to
31N67W with isolated showers. To the east, a surface ridge
extends across the central Atlantic anchored by a stationary 1026
mb high centered near 33N46W. A 1005 mb surface low centered near
33N26W extends a trough from the low to 28N25W to 24N27W.
Isolated showers are occurring in the vicinity of the trough and
low mainly north of 29N between 22W-30W. Expect a surface low to
develop off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina this weekend.
A strong cold front related to this low will move across the west
Atlantic ushering in a round of strong to near gale force
northerly winds on Saturday night and prevailing through Monday
morning. Little change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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