[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061651
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1151 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A cold front is currently analyzed across the NW and north-central
Gulf waters from the Florida panhandle near 30N86W SW to 27N95W
then to the NE Mexico coast near 25N97W. The front is forecast to
move across the basin through Saturday and position itself SE of
the Gulf basin by Saturday night. Near gale to gale force
northerly winds are expected to materialize by Saturday morning
around 07/0600 UTC from 21N-24N W of 96W and persist through
Sunday morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N08W to
04N18W to 02N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 02N24W to the Equator near 32W and along the Equator to 40W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is S of 06N between 32W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Nearly zonal westerly flow aloft prevails over much of the Gulf
basin this afternoon with a middle to upper level shortwave
trough noted on water vapor imagery over the Texas panhandle and
New Mexico. This troughing and energy is forecast to continue
progressing eastward and drive the Special Features cold front...
currently analyzed from the Florida panhandle SW to the NE Mexico
coast near 25N97W...across the remainder of the basin through
Saturday night. As mentioned above...near gale to gale force
northerly winds are expected across portions of the western Gulf
with fresh to strong N-NE winds expected elsewhere through Monday
morning. The wind field will gradually diminish from west to east
Monday as SE return flow re-establishes itself across the NW Gulf.
Elsewhere...strong high pressure will remain anchored across the
central and southern plains and move eastward to the mid-Atlc
coast by Sunday night. Otherwise...a 1017 mb high is centered
across the southern Florida peninsula with only a few isolated
showers and tstms occurring across the SE Gulf within southerly
winds from 24N-27N between 82W-89W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Water vapor imagery continues to indicate strong subsidence over
the entire basin. In addition...a fairly weak pressure gradient
is noted across the basin with moderate to fresh trades expected
to persist through the evening and overnight hours. Slightly
stronger trades...fresh to occasional strong...are expected
within close proximity to the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela.
By Saturday night...a cold front is forecast to move into the NW
Caribbean resulting in strong to near gale N-NE winds that will
spread southeastward to 74W by Monday morning.

...HISPANIOLA...
Conditions remain fair with mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Dry
air and strong subsidence aloft are providing an overall stable
environment that is expected to persist the next several days
keeping overall conditions tranquil across the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the SW North Atlc region as
broad longwave middle to upper level troughing is noted on water
vapor imagery over the Great Lakes region. The troughing supports
a cold front analyzed to the north of the discussion area
extending inland across South Carolina and Georgia then SW into
the northern Gulf of Mexico. A few isolated showers are possible N
of 31N W of 79W. This cold front is expected to introduce fresh to
strong southerly winds generally N of 27N W of 73W by Saturday
morning with the association frontal passage shifting winds
northerly ranging from strong to near gale strength. This N-NE
wind field will quickly move southeastward across the region
through Monday as strong high pressure anchors to the north across
the mid-Atlc coast. Otherwise...for the remainder of the afternoon
and evening...a ridge axis extends from the central Atlc from
28N50W W-SW to central Cuba near 23N80W. A few isolated showers
and tstms are occurring N of 28N between 53W-63W. Farther east...a
ridge continues to influence much of the central Atlc anchored by
a 1027 mb high centered near 32N46W. Finally...across the eastern
Atlc...a gale force 1004 mb low is centered near 30N25W with a
surface trough axis extending SE to 29N23W then S-SW to 25N24W to
23N27W. This low is supported aloft by a cut-off middle to upper
level low centered near 31N26W. Widely scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring in the vicinity of the surface low
from 27N- 36N between 17W-31W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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