[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1239 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from 27N97W to
30N92W. The front is expected to move across the basin through
the overnight hours and position itself southeast of the Gulf
waters by Saturday night. Near gale to gale force northerly winds
will develop by 07/0600 UTC from 21N-28N west of 90W and persist
through early Sunday morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to
02N21W. The ITCZ extends from 02N21W to 00N26W to 00N49W. Isolated
moderate convection is observed within 100 nm on either side of
the ITCZ mainly west of 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf from 27N97W to
30N92W. A 1014 mb high centered near 26N86W providing mostly
tranquil conditions at this time. As mentioned above...near gale
to gale force northerly winds are expected across portions of the
western Gulf with fresh to strong N-NE winds expected through
Monday morning. A strong high pressure will remain anchored across
the southern plains then move eastward to the mid-Atlantic coast
by Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor imagery continues to indicate strong subsidence over
the entire basin. A weak pressure gradient is noted across the
basin supporting gentle to moderate trades through the overnight
hours. Moderate to fresh winds are expected within close proximity
to the coast of Colombia and northwest Venezuela. By Saturday
night...a cold front is expected to move into the NW Caribbean
resulting in strong to near gale northerly winds that will spread
southeastward to 74W by Monday morning.

...HISPANIOLA...

Dry air and strong subsidence aloft are providing an overall
stable environment that is expected to persist the next several
days keeping overall conditions tranquil.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front extends across the west Atlantic from
26N75W to 31N65W with isolated showers. To the east, a surface
ridge extends across the central Atlantic anchored by a stationary
1026 mb high centered near 33N47W. A 1007 mb surface low centered
near 33N27W extends a trough from the low to 28N24W to 23N30W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are occurring mainly east of the trough
axis north of 28N between 18W-22W. Expect a surface low to develop
on Saturday off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina with a
strong cold front moving across the west Atlantic ushering in a
round of strong to near gale force northerly winds Saturday night
late through Monday morning. Little change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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