[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052252
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
552 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A cold front is currently analyzed across the NW Gulf waters from
the SW Louisiana coast near 30N93W SW to the Texas coast near
the Matagorda Bay. The front will begin to move eastward quickly
through the overnight hours into Friday across the basin...and
position itself SE of the Gulf waters by Saturday night. Near gale
to gale force northerly winds are expected to materialize by
07/0600 UTC from 21N-28N W of 90W and persist through early Sunday
morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
04N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N19W to 01N30W to the Equator near 38W. Isolated moderate
convection is S of 04N between 37W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Nearly zonal westerly flow aloft prevails over much of the Gulf
basin this evening with an upper level trough and middle level
energy noted on water vapor imagery over the Intermountain West.
This trough and energy is forecast to drive a cold front...
currently analyzed offshore of the Texas and Louisiana coasts...
across the basin through Saturday night. As mentioned above...near
gale to gale force northerly winds are expected across portions of
the western Gulf with fresh to strong N-NE winds expected through
Monday morning. Strong high pressure will remain anchored across
the southern plains and move eastward to the mid-Atlc coast by
Sunday night. Otherwise...a weak 1015 mb high centered near 28N87W
continues to provide mostly tranquil conditions this evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Water vapor imagery continues to indicate strong subsidence over
the entire basin. A dissipating stationary front is analyzed
across the Yucatan Channel region supporting isolated showers N of
20N between 83W-88W. Otherwise...a fairly weak pressure gradient
is noted across the basin with gentle to moderate trades expected
to persist through the overnight hours. Slightly stronger
trades...moderate to fresh...are expected within close proximity
to the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela. By Saturday night...a
cold front is expected to move into the NW Caribbean resulting in
strong to near gale northerly winds that will spread southeastward
to 74W by Monday morning.

...HISPANIOLA...
Conditions remain mostly fair with partly cloudy skies this
evening and the a possible isolated shower occurring across
interior portions of the island. Dry air and strong subsidence
aloft however are providing an overall stable environment that is
expected to persist the next several days keeping overall
conditions tranquil.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery in
the vicinity of 34N68W with axis extending SW to over the NW
Bahamas near 26N77W. This troughing supports a cold front analyzed
from 32N65W SW to the central Bahamas near 25N76W to the northern
coast of western Cuba near 23N81W. Widely scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring N of 26N between 61W-70W...with
isolated showers occurring elsewhere within 90 nm either side of
the front W of 70W. Otherwise...a 1011 mb low centered off the
coast of Georgia near 32N80W is forecast to move quickly NE and
away from the discussion area. By Saturday morning...another low
is expected to develop in nearly the same location off the coast
of Georgia and South Carolina with a strong cold front moving
across the SW North Atlc ushering in a round of strong to near
gale force northerly winds Saturday night late through Monday
morning. Farther east...a ridge continues to influence much of
the central Atlc anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 32N47W.
Within the southern periphery of the ridge to the E of the Lesser
Antilles...scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 07N-16N
between 47W-60W. This activity is likely supported by an upper
level trough axis noted on water vapor imagery extending from
22N54W SW to a base over the eastern Caribbean Sea near 15N65W.
Finally...across the eastern Atlc...a complex surface low is
centered on a 1007 mb low centered near 32N28W with surface trough
axis extending SE to 30N26W then S-SW to 25N30W to 23N34W. This
low is supported aloft by a middle to upper level low centered
near 32N28W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring mainly east
of the surface trough axis from 26N-34N between 20W-26W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net