[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1224 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A strong cold front will cross the Gulf of Mexico tonight through
Saturday. High pressure building behind the front will support
gale force winds over the western Gulf beginning early Saturday
morning from 21N to 28N, west of the cold front. Then, the gale
force winds will become confined to the southern Gulf to the west
of the front later Saturday morning. Please refer to the high
seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
further details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa reaching the Atlantic
waters near 09N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to 01N30W to 01S44W. Isolated moderate convection is south 03N
between 35W and 50W, and within 60 nm of the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving inland over Cuba and across the Yucatan
Channel with a dissipating stationary front over the southern Gulf
from 23N86W to 21N94W. No significant precipitation is associated
with this front. A weak 1015 mb high centered near 28N88W
dominates the majority of the Gulf basin with gentle to moderate
winds. A coastal trough is located within about 30 nm of the
Texas coast. Over the next 24 hours an arctic front will make its
way across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Strong high pressure will
build southward across the central United States and support gale
force winds over portions of the central and southern Gulf of
Mexico beginning Saturday morning. Please see the special features
section for more details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor imagery continues to show strong subsidence over the
entire basin especially pronounced over the southern half. A
weakening frontal boundary is drifting into the Yucatan Channel
supporting scattered showers. A weakening 1015 mb high is over the
northwestern Caribbean near 20N83W and is supporting light to
gentle winds over this portion of the basin. The pressure gradient
between Colombia low pressure and high pressure over the central
Atlantic supports fresh winds over much of the central and eastern
Caribbean with strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Over the
next 24 hours the front will dissipate.

HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers in southeast flow will spread across the
southern and eastern portion of the Island today. Expect this
pattern to continue through at least tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N69W to
the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection prevails
mainly north of 27N within 300 nm east of the front. A weakening
surface trough extends from 28N57W to 23N59W. Scattered showers
are within 120 nm east of the trough. A pair of low pressure areas
centered just north of the area of discussion along 31W/33W are
supporting scattered moderate convection north of 27N between 20W
and 27W. High pressure centered near 32N48W dominates the
remainder of the central Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours
northerly winds will increase offshore northern Florida as arctic
high pressure builds north of that region.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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