[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
600 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa reaching the Atlantic
waters near 10N14W to 06N20W. The ITCZ begins from that point to
00N30W to 01S45W. Isolated showers are observed within 100 nm on
either side of these boundaries between 20W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal system was analyzed as a stationary front from 20N95W to
22N88W then as a cold front from that point to 25N80W. Cloudiness
and isolated showers are observed in the vicinity of the cold
front mainly south of 24N and east of 90W. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds mainly west of 90W
while gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail east of 90W.
Expect for the cold front to move south and stall across the
southern Gulf waters during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor imagery continues to show strong subsidence over the
entire basin especially pronounced over the southern half. A
surface trough extends across the northwest Caribbean from 21N87W
to 23N82W with isolated showers. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades across the basin with an area of locally
strong winds south of 13N between 73W-77W. A frontal boundary will
stall over the Florida Straits area during the next 24 hours. This
boundary will support some shower activity across the far west
Caribbean waters and western Cuba. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Tropical
moisture transported by the trades and enhanced by diurnal heating
will support isolated showers across the island in the afternoon
hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 25N80W to
31N70W. Scattered moderate convection prevails mainly north of
28N and west of 66W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 24N80W to
26N76W with isolated showers. To the east, a surface trough
extends from 24N57W to 27N55W with isolated showers. A surface
ridge extends across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1024
mb high centered near 32N50W and a 1018 mb high near 24N28W.
Expect during the next 24 hours for the cold front to continue
moving east with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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