[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050527
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1226 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa reaching the Atlantic
waters near 06N11W to 03N20W. The ITCZ begins from that point to
03N34W to 00N50W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed
within 100 nm on either side of these boundaries between 15W-
35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal system was analyzed as a stationary front from 20N95W to
24N87W then as a cold front from that point to 26N81W. Cloudiness
and isolated showers are observed in the vicinity of the cold
front mainly south of 24N and east of 88W. A surface trough
extends across the Florida Straits from 24N82W to 25N80W with
isolated showers also. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate northerly winds across the basin. Expect for the cold
front to move south and stall across the southern Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor imagery continues to show strong subsidence over the
entire basin especially pronounced over the southern half. No
surface features are located over the Caribbean at this time.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin with an area of locally strong winds south of 13N between
73W-77W. A frontal boundary will stall over the Florida Straits
area during the next 24 hours supporting some shower activity across
the far west Caribbean waters and western Cuba. Little change is
expected elsewhere.

HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Tropical
moisture transported by the trades and enhanced by diurnal heating
will support isolated showers across the island in the afternoon
hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front extends from 30N81W to 31N79W. A cold front
was analyzed south of this boundary extending from 26N80W to
31N74W. The combination of these boundaries is keeping the west
Atlantic with scattered moderate convection mainly north of 28N
and west of 66W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 25N80W to
28N75W with isolated showers. A surface ridge extends across the
remainder of the basin anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near
32N51W. Expect for the weakening cold front to dissipate during
the next 24 hours. The other cold front will continue moving east
with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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